Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 140953
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
253 am MST Thu Nov 14 2019
Synopsis...high pressure will build across the region through
Friday maintaining warmer than normal temperatures. A cold front
will push through the region Saturday bringing a cooling trend,
along with a few snow showers possible over northeast Utah and
Short term (through 00z monday)...mid level ridging currently
building into the Great Basin will slowly translate eastward today
through tonight, with southwesterly flow following for Friday. As
this ridge axis passes mid and high level cloud cover will
increase across the forecast area. Max temperatures across the
lower elevations will remain near persistence and continue to run
10+ degrees above climo through Friday, while the higher
elevations will see a bit of a warming trend as warmer air aloft
advects into the region.
The models continue to advertise a splitting shortwave trough
digging into the western Continental U.S. Friday, with the northern portion
of the splitting system brushing by northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming Saturday. The associated cold front will bring a cooling
trend knocking temperatures back to near climo across the north
Saturday, and area-wide by Sunday.
Some discrepancy remains between model solutions regarding how
far west the nose of the upper jet extends, which will determine
whether light snow develops across the northern Wasatch/Bear River
ranges Saturday morning. Kept a chance of snow showers across
these areas for now, and anything which develops would be light
with minimal if any accumulation.
Long term (after 00z monday)...high pressure centered just off
the California coast will keep a dry northwest flow over Utah and
southwest Wyoming to start the long term period. The ridge axis is
progged to shift east to start the upcoming work week, moving
east of the area by Tuesday. This will allow a more active pattern
to develop by the middle of next week, though guidance continues
to diverge on the details.
Global guidance shows a Canadian trough impacting the area, but
the GFS and associated gefs ensembles indicate this will be a more
progressive feature primarily impacting northern portions of the
forecast area. However, latest ec and eps dig this trough much
farther south before it makes its eastward turn, indicating a
feature that would be more impactful for southern Utah. With this
spread, current pops favor the model blend, with relatively low
pops across much of the cwa, favoring the higher terrain. All
guidance does indicate modest cooling with any trough that impacts
the area, so have indicated a cooling trend in temperatures for
days six and seven.
Aviation...the slc terminal will see VFR conditions throughout the
day with increasing high clouds. Southeast winds are expected to
shift to the northwest between 18z and 20z.
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