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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1235 am CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

/06z tafs/

Mainly VFR conditions will occur through 06z sun, except where
heavy rain/thunderstorms occur in which MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions
are possible. Through 07z, showers in the Northwest Hill country
and San Saba County producing localy MVFR conditions will
dissipate. Then from 18z today to 02z sun, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely to develop south of the Big Country,
producing brief heavy rain. Cumulonimbus tops to 45000 ft agl, with bases
around 5000-8000 ft agl. Winds should mostly be below 8 knots.


Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

/00z tafs/

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
across the area through mid evening before dissipating. Will keep
a tempo group going for most of the terminals through 02z, otherwise
no precipitation is expected overnight. VFR conditions will prevail,
other than some brief reductions to visibility in thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered convection will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening, although coverage uncertainties will preclude
mentioning at this time. Expect light winds through the period.

Previous discussion... /issued 303 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

Short term...
(tonight and saturday)

Possible rain...

Based on the latest radar data, some locations will receive rain
this afternoon. The short term models indicate this activity may
continue until around midnight tonight. Then, these same models
indicate showers and thunderstorms may again develop, during the
afternoon, Saturday.

Long term...
(saturday night through friday)

Heat and possible rain...

The long term forecast continues to include the potential for
rain and the possibility for triple digit afternoon highs Sunday
and especially Monday. The GFS indicates the 850mb thermal ridge
will significantly expand over west central Texas Sunday
afternoon, as well as Monday afternoon. Add this to high afternoon
relative humidity, and west central Texas may have heat indices
in the 105 to 110 range these 2 afternoons. Thus, some locations
may need a heat advisory one or both of these afternoons. The GFS
and to a lesser degree the European model (ecmwf) bring a cold front south of the
Red River by Tuesday. Nevertheless, confidence on exactly how far
south this boundary will extend is not very high. So, the
forecast, for now, has surface winds from mainly the south, from
Tuesday through the end of the week. But, if convection pushes the
front farther South, West central Texas may see additional rain
and cooler temperatures.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 95 75 102 77 / 30 10 10 10
San Angelo 97 72 104 75 / 30 10 10 10
Junction 96 72 100 73 / 30 10 10 10
Brownwood 95 72 101 75 / 30 10 10 10
Sweetwater 95 74 102 76 / 30 10 10 10
Ozona 93 71 101 75 / 30 10 10 0


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

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