Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 202337 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
637 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through the
next 24 hours. A smoke plume, from a grass/brush fire southeast
of San Angelo in Tom Green County, is drifting west/northwest
over the ksjt airfield this evening. This smoke plume is aloft
and is not expected to cause visibility reductions at ksjt.
Will monitor, however, and will update the ksjt taf if needed.
Isolated showers across the southeastern part of our area will
dissipate later this evening. With the brief nature of these
showers and low coverage, not mentioning at our taf sites. Would
not be out of the quetion to have brief erratic and gusty winds in
the vicinity of a few of these showers. Mainly southeast winds
this evening will decrease by sunset. Winds will become south
overnight. Mainly south or south-southwest winds 5-10 knots are
expected Wednesday morning, with winds becoming south-southeast in
Previous discussion... /issued 312 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
(tonight and wednesday)
Models this cycle continue to indicate the potential for cooler
temperatures. Although temperatures will more than likely remain
above those usual for this time in August, lows tonight and highs
on Wednesday may be a degree or two cooler than this morning's
lows and this afternoon's highs.
(wednesday night through tuesday)
.Turning cooler with possible rain...
The potential for cooler temperatures remains the highlight of
the long term forecast, with the potential for rain barely getting
a mention. Models continue to weaken the ridge aloft, as this week
progresses. This notable shift aloft will then moderate the
850mb thermal ridge to our west and weaken its grip on west
central Texas. Thus, temperatures, especially afternoon highs,
could be more in line with usual late August temperatures by late
weekend or early next week. As for rain chances, models remain, in
a word, iffy! Confidence is way too low for any pops greater than
20 percent, and that is perhaps too generous!
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 73 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0