Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ksjt 110832 
afdsjt

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
232 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Short term...
(today and tonight)

With a moist boundary layer and ongoing radiational cooling, low
clouds and patchy fog/freezing fog are affecting our southern and
central counties early this morning. Expect a breakup of low cloud
cover and dissipation of fog by mid-to-late morning, with sunny
to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. After a cold start to the
day, temperatures should reach the mid to upper 50s for highs this
afternoon. Southeast to south winds will increase to 7-14 mph,
with surface high pressure ridge slowly receding from our area and
Lee surface trough developing to our west. Generally clear skies
are expected tonight, with overnight lows 30-35 degrees. The
colder readings are expected to be in some of the low-lying areas
and river valleys of our Heartland and Northwest Hill country
counties, where winds will be weakest and radiational cooling will
be a little stronger.

19

Long term...
(thursday through next tuesday)

No significant changes were needed for the long term forecast. A
progressive and generally dry pattern is expected from Thursday
into early next week, with temperatures warming into the 60s and
70s for Friday and the weekend. A shortwave will move through the
Southern Plains Thursday, but the most we can expect out of this
is a shift to west/northwest winds late Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures will warm from the upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday
into the mid 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday. Another
stronger cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday
into Monday morning. Medium range models disagree on the timing of
the front. Both models show a trough moving across the central
U. S. Sunday night into Monday, but the ec is slightly faster, and
pushes the cold front through a few hours faster than the GFS. The
main impact would be cooler temperatures for Sunday across the
northern half of the forecast area if the European model (ecmwf) is correct. Monday
and Tuesday will both be cooler across the entire area with highs
mainly in the 50s.

20

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 54 33 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 57 32 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 57 31 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 54 30 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 54 35 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 55 32 60 36 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations