Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 162327
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
527 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019
There is a slight chance of MVFR cigs impacting the extreme
southern and southeast counties between 12z and 15z, but
confidence too low to include in tafs. Thus, VFR conditions
expected through 00z Mon. Weak S to SW winds expected through 14z.
A weak cold front will bring a wind shift from the north to northwest to the
Big Country (including kabi) around 15z, then the Concho
Valley/Heartland (including ksjt, kbbd) around 17-18z, and the
northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill country (including
ksoa, kjct) around 18-19z. Expect wind speeds around 8-12 knots
behind the front.
Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/
(tonight and sunday)
Cooler temperatures are in store as a cold front will move across
the region on Sunday. Winds will become a bit breezy and gusty as
this front passes through the area late morning into the early
afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler
temperatures for tonight.
(sunday night through next saturday)
The southern stream jet could bring a couple of storm systems
into west central Texas next week, while the polar jet, flowing
across the northern U.S. May force a cold front into the area by
next Thursday. Weak ridging aloft should bring mostly sunny and
dry weather to the area Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s.
The northern stream upper flow begins to dig an upper trough across
the West Coast by Wednesday and phases it with the southern stream
upper level jet. As the upper level flow becomes southwesterly by
Wednesday across west central Texas, the upper level low weakens to
an open shortwave and is progged to move across the area as a weak
disturbance. This could bring some showers to west central Texas
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A surface cold front should arrive
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, dropping highs into the 60s
on Thursday and into the 50s and 60s on Friday.
Combination of upper level southwesterly flow and a cold frontal
passage by Thursday generally means cloudier and potentially a
wetter pattern for west central Texas as moisture from the Gulf
and Pacific is lifted up and over the cold air at the surface.
Skies should also be mostly cloudy Thursday and Friday along with
a better chance of showers Thursday night through Friday night.
Too early to tell how much rain is expected at this point.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 40 62 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 42 67 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 41 69 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 38 65 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 41 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 41 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0