Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 260840
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
340 am CDT Mon Aug 26 2019
(today and tonight)
An upper level high pressure ridge will remain across the Southern
Plains today. As a result, expect very hot and dry weather across
the area. An excessive heat warning is now in effect for the western
2/3 of the Big Country and much of the Concho Valley from noon to 7
PM, due to highs of 105 to 109 and heat index values of around 110.
Will keep the heat advisory going across the rest of west central
Texas from noon to 7 PM. Expect warm and muggy conditions
overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
(tuesday through sunday)
A cold front will push across the Panhandle and Oklahoma tonight
and then sag into the Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Upper
level ridge still close enough that the cap will strong, but hot
temperatures once again and convergence along the front should
lead to scattered convection late in the afternoon and into the
evening for areas mainly north of I-20. Given the northerly flow
aloft and with the possibility of convective outflows pushing
south will continue the mention of a few storms as far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by sunrise Wednesday morning.
Cold front may make it as far south as I-10 on Wednesday, although
certainly the boundary will be more diffuse. Scattered convection
will be possible once again, perhaps isolated convection a little
farther south too. Increased cloud cover across the Big Country
will keep temperatures in the lower 90s north of I-20 on Wednesday
afternoon, although still in the mid and upper 90s farther South.
Center of the upper level ridge will shift back a little farther
west through the rest of the week, with temperatures dropping a
little enough to at least keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark. Northerly flow aloft may help the arrival of another
weak cold front for the weekend.
Going with fire danger statement across the western half of the area
this afternoon and early evening due to dry conditions, gusty south
winds and much above normal temperatures.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 106 78 97 72 / 0 5 20 40
San Angelo 107 78 103 74 / 0 0 10 20
Junction 103 75 101 74 / 0 0 5 10
Brownwood 103 76 100 73 / 0 0 20 20
Sweetwater 108 77 97 72 / 0 5 20 40
Ozona 103 74 100 73 / 0 0 5 10
excessive heat warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
Heat advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-