Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kshv 120600
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1200 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019
For the arklatex, sfc winds are going to be a little less gusty
from the northwest/north 10-20g30kt overnight with IFR improving to MVFR/VFR
and clearing out by daybreak. Toward daybreak the wind will veer
a bit to NE. Climb winds are is n20-45kt and back to northwest then west/SW
for Florida increasing to 50-75kt. We still may have some light to mod
icing 12-15kft with below zero near saturation. Clear and near
calm with a solid freeze overnight especially most everywhere
except klfk. Fair wx and warming up late week with some shwrs.
Previous discussion... /issued 1006 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/
To expand Wind Chill Advisory across I-30 and lower temps a bit.
The freezing line is cutting in toward I-20 in NE Texas and we have
tweaked down lows a bit making for more real estate to be impacted
for the early commute and the wind chill adv. The freezing line
will wash across all of our area by daybreak with low to mid 20s
for most of the region with upper 20s to around 31 for deep East Texas
across Toledo Bend and cenla.
The back edge of measurable rain stretches from Lufkin to Monroe
and yes there have been some change overs with El Dorado the
latest hour before last with no impacts possible. We are drying
out a little faster now and will see the roads dry up with lower
20 tds now into our north. We will likely rerun the zones again at
midnight to lessen overnight wording as much of quantitative precipitation forecast will be gone
by then. /24/
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/
Short term.../tonight through Tuesday night/
strong cold front from Jacksonville Texas to Marshall and Magnolia
Arkansas continues to move southeast across the arklatex bringing
showers and isolated thunder to some areas. Post frontal precip to
exit the region to the southeast with the lingering back edge of
precipitation possibly changing over to a rain/snow mix. At this
time expecting no impacts Worth headlining with this winter
Strong winds, however will persist overnight with some areas
approaching 30 mph with higher gusts. Held off on a Wind Advisory
for portions of East Texas and north Louisiana due to highres
model trends trending slightly lower and observations supporting
this slightly weaker trend. However, can't rule out a few isolated
instances of 30 miles per hour sustained winds within any given hour this
evening. Ongoing lake Wind Advisory should be sufficient to cover
Temperatures forecast to plummet below freezing tonight with lows
ranging from the lower 30s across north Louisiana to around 20
across southeast Oklahoma. Winds combined with cold temperatures
north of I-30 will result in wind chill values around 5 to 10
degrees. Thus a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for these areas
Surface high pressure to become better established across the
region on Tuesday with winds diminishing to around 15 mph and high
temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 40s.
Overnight lows on Tuesday night, however to fall into the low to
mid 20s areawide. /05/
Long term.../Wednesday through Monday/
Surface high pressure will be shifting into the sern conus at
beginning of this period while a weak upper low travels across south
Texas before becmg an open wave with base of trough near Gulf Coast.
Despite ample sunshine, aftn highs only rebounding to either side of
50 degrees after near hard freeze conditions overnight. As a result
of the upper low riding over the top of this stable low layer of air
, areas of stratiform rain near the coast may spread as far north as
the I-20 corridor. Rainfall amounts should remain light in our cwa,
and quickly shift east of the MS river by Thursday night in the
accelerating open wave.
In the wake of this retreating upper trough, another 1030mb high
pressure just north of the area will lock in place as upper trough
over se conus once again becomes a closed low and creating a
blocking pattern upstream. Seasonally cold temps will be maintained
with only a gradual warming underway by later in the weekend, with a
chance of rain possible as long wave trough slowly develops across
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 28 43 24 50 / 70 0 0 0
mlu 28 41 23 48 / 90 0 0 0
deq 20 42 21 48 / 10 0 0 0
txk 24 42 22 48 / 30 0 0 0
eld 25 41 20 49 / 60 0 0 0
tyr 25 43 25 51 / 40 0 0 0
ggg 26 44 23 51 / 50 0 0 0
lfk 31 46 26 53 / 90 0 0 0
Arkansas...lake Wind Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for arz050-051-059>061-
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for arz072-073.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 am to 8 am CST Tuesday for arz050-051-
La...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for laz001-002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for laz003>006-010>014-
OK...lake Wind Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for okz077.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 am to 8 am CST Tuesday for okz077.
Texas...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for txz096-097-108>112-
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for txz152-153-165>167.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 am to 8 am CST Tuesday for txz096-097-