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FXUS64 KSHV 060021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019


For the 06/00z TAFs, gusty southerly winds will diminish slightly
with VFR conditions prevailing initially with abundant mid and 
high level ceilings. Clouds will lower as moisture increases 
ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level trough. Flight 
conditions will likely deteriorate into the MVFR, possibly the 
IFR, range after midnight local time. Scattered showers are 
likely across Southwest and Southern Arkansas and portions of 
North Central Louisiana after 06/09z. KTXK, KMLU and KELD will be
the TAF sites most likely to be affected. /20/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/

A shortwave trough currently in Eastern Colorado will move east-
southeast tonight and over the ArkLaTex by sunrise Friday morning.
This will also bring a strengthening surface low and Pacific cold
front across the area during the day Friday. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms should develop north of a weak warm front
extending eastward from the surface low over Southeast Oklahoma 
and Southern Arkansas. A considerable mid-level layer of dry air 
over East Texas and extreme Western Louisiana will likely keep 
those areas rain free. Moisture flowing northward from the Gulf 
of Mexico should build sufficiently for a brief window of 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of 
North Central Louisiana late Friday morning and exiting to the 
east shortly after noon. Severe weather is not anticipated. 
However, there will be some elevated CAPE, which could result in 
small hail with the strongest storms, but this risk is low.

All precip should exit the forecast area to the east early Friday
afternoon. No additional precip is expected through the short-term
period. Surface winds will veer to the northwest following the
frontal passage. Some weak cold air advection will cool overnight
lows back into the 40s Friday night. Some portions of Southeast
Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas could fall into the upper


LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday Night/

Expecting dry weather through the weekend with temperatures warming 
to above normal levels ahead of a cold front poised to arrive from 
the north later Monday into Monday night. Despite the expected lack 
of rain from Saturday through early Monday, there will still be a 
fair amount of mainly mid to high level clouds around as moisture 
aloft spills well east of a large trough impacting the southwestern 
CONUS. The energy well out west will gradually dampen as it migrates 
east early next week, although there will still be enough generated 
atmospheric lift to boost rain chances. This will occur mainly in 
the wake of the mentioned cold front sliding south on Monday (i.e., 
Monday night into Tuesday) as the trailing baroclinic zone aloft 
(~850 mb) stalls north of the coast.

The latter scenario is the kind of setup that could bring parts of 
the Four State region winter weather in the heart of winter. 
Fortunately (or unfortunately if you like winter weather), 
temperatures look to be chilly enough to only ensure a cold rain, 
even in northern zones. However, this is a detail we will be keeping 
a close eye on. 

By Tuesday night the model consensus is not very good regarding 
details of the weather pattern in the vicinity of the region. The 
operational European model is now suggesting a surface low could 
spin up near the stalled surface front along the coast and bring at 
least southern zones precipitation chances through the rest of the 
long term. However, other operational runs and ensemble means 
suggest mainly dry conditions, at least until later Thursday when 
another cold front may arrive. For now, the forecast in this time 
frame remains close to the model blend, depicting only low rain 
chances in southern zones with temperatures slightly below normal. 


SHV  71  56  69  48 /   0  30  10   0 
MLU  70  52  71  48 /   0  50  40  10 
DEQ  69  52  60  41 /   0  50  10   0 
TXK  70  55  62  45 /   0  50  10   0 
ELD  69  53  66  45 /   0  50  40   0 
TYR  72  55  67  43 /   0  10   0   0 
GGG  72  56  68  45 /   0  20  10   0 
LFK  73  58  72  47 /   0  10  10   0 



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