Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kshv 151129
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
629 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019
Mostly VFR skc conditions areawide aside from the isold aftn high
based cumulus. Any aftn convection will be very isold and brief.
Easterly winds 5 to 10 kts this aftn./07/.
Previous discussion... /issued 259 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019/
Short term.../today through Monday/
Upper ridge remains centered over nrn portions of cwa and expect
another Carbon copy to exist today with aftn highs in upper 90's
to around 100 degrees and heat index readings 100 to 105 degrees.
Eastern portions of cwa experiencing Max readings around 105 past
couple of days as dewpoints have remained near 70 degrees but
have not fully broken threshold for heat advisory so will hold off
once again. Easterly flow over area as low remains nrn Gulf and
very isold late aftn tstms developed near and just south of I-20.
Therefore, have placed srn half of cwa in late aftn and early eve
20 pops, supported also by a slight uptick in upstream moisture as
seen on 0z sun sounding at kjan. For now will leave 20 percent
pops srn sections for Monday that are already in fcst./07/.
Long term.../Monday night through Saturday night/
Upper ridge axis to remain centered over our region through much of
the upcoming work week. This will continue to result in above normal
temperatures and minimal chances for rain. We should see an uptick
in diurnal convection especially Tuesday and beyond, as a weak Gulf
low moves nwd into central/southeast Texas around the wrn periphery of the
Ridge to be eroded somewhat/forced ewd late in the week, as an upper
trof over the nern Continental U.S. Moves away and another trof pushes ewd into
the plains. This should result in perhaps better coverage of
diurnal/enhanced sea breeze convection Friday and into the weekend.
Previous discussion... /issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/
VFR conditions will continue through the 15/06z taf period. The
last of the elevated cu field along the I-20 corridor of East Texas
continues to shift west late this evening, and should exit the wrn
sections of East Texas by 09z. Otherwise, sky clear will prevail overnight
through midday Sunday, before a sct cu field develops again
areawide in the afternoon. As was the case this afternoon, very
isolated convection again can not be ruled out from mid-afternoon
through early evening mainly across portions of East Texas/north la, but low
confidence precludes thunder mention in these terminals attm. An
elevated cu field may persist again Sunday evening as it diminishes
from east to west across north la/east TX, but otherwise, sky clear will return to the
remainder of the region during the evening. Light east-northeast or
lt/vrb winds tonight will become east-northeast 5-8kts by mid/late morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 100 75 98 74 / 10 20 10 0
mlu 99 73 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
deq 98 71 98 71 / 10 10 10 0
txk 98 72 97 73 / 10 10 10 0
eld 99 72 99 71 / 10 10 10 0
tyr 99 73 96 72 / 10 20 10 0
ggg 100 73 98 72 / 10 20 10 0
lfk 99 72 96 73 / 20 20 20 0