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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

A weak upper low over over the Kansas-OK-AR-MO four state area with a
shear axis extending from OK into MO will meander slowly or remain
quasi-stationary through tonight. It will then shift slowly east
and northeast and weaken Saturday and Saturday night ahead of
stronger upstream upper wave moving from The Rockies into eastern
Kansas by late Saturday night/Sunday.

For tonight into Saturday, showers/isolated thunderstorms should
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating along with
slightly drier air trying to backdoor its way south and southwest
with a large sfc high over the Great Lakes. Far southern and
southwest MO/southeast Kansas won't see much modification of the air
mass, but our northeast counties in central MO should see some
drier air tonight into Saturday. Cloud cover should help keep
high temperatures much cooler than normal on Saturday with most
areas in the 70s to near 80 degrees in the afternoon. Could see a
few diurnally driven showers/weak convection but coverage doesn't
look too impressive.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Sunday: a stronger upper level shortwave over eastern Kansas to start
the period will shift east. In general guidance has a small
complex of storms over eastern Kansas to start the period shifting
east into our counties Sunday morning. GFS/high res NAM progged
instability isn't too impressive so not playing up much of severe
storm risk at this point.

Monday: a strong upper level trough will move into the northern
plains/southern Canada by Monday with an unseasonably strong jet
nosing into the cornbelt/Midwest. This will push a cold front
through our area late Monday/Monday night. Will need to watch
this period with the potential for severe storms given the
instability/increasing vertical shear expected during this time.

Tuesday-friday: the front should shift off to the south and east.
Some chances for thunderstorms may persist in our southern cwfa
Tue depending on where the frontal band becomes stationary for a
brief period. High pressure builds in by Wed them moves west-
east through the region Thu-Fri. Looks quiet Wed-Fri at this
point.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

A stalled front across the region will help to keep low ceilings
and showers across the area this evening and through the day
Saturday. Ceilings will initially be just above the MVFR
threshold but will fall to MVFR overnight and are expected to
remain MVFR through the day Saturday. Showers will wander across
the area and where they move across an Aerodrome visibilities and
ceilings will be impacted.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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