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fxus63 ksgf 111130 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 219 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Southerly flow will develop today as high pressure departs into
the Ohio Valley and Lee troughing becomes established out west.
Surface temperatures as a result will be around 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday, and still warmer on Thursday as the low level jet

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 219 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Friday will once again be mild but a cold front passing late in
the day/Friday night will put an end to the bout of above normal

Medium range models are in agreement in keeping lift north of the
County Warning Area with this feature so aside from an isolated shower, the front
looks to be dry.

Attention then turns to this weekend. As the cold front exits
eastward, models are showing good overall agreement in
maintaining strong zonal upper flow that will back over time while
a weak surface wave develops over the Southern Plains. The key to
this forecast is tied to the development and axis of the low
level jet above this surface front as the GFS/ecm/Canadian all now
form a southerly low level jet that will propagate Gulf moisture
northward toward the Ozarks.

The majority of gefs ensemble members are now forecasting
precipitation Sunday into Monday...though a few members continue
to depict little to no precipitation for the Springfield County Warning Area.
Confidence at this point is for mainly snow to fall north of I-44
with the synoptic pattern suggesting the low level jet will lead
to a warm nose aloft resulting in a rain/snow mix even a limited
amount of freezing precipitation south of Interstate 44. Future
runs will refine these expectations.

The upper flow will veer back westerly by midweek ending the
precipitation event but keep temperatures seasonably cool.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 530 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions to prevail through the taf period.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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