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FXUS63 KSGF 260754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Attention certainly on severe weather potential late this
afternoon into early tonight. Hot, humid conditions will lead to
substantial instability (ML CAPE of 2,000-4,000 J/kg) prior to 
the arrival of a strong cold front from the NW late this 
afternoon. Kinematics will also be quite supportive with deep 
layer shear of 30-40 kts. Initially, discrete cells with potential
for supercells will lead to a risk large hail to the size of 
tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes mainly NW of a line 
from Lamar to Osceola. As convective mode transitions to linear 
segments, the threat will transition to generic large hail and 
damaging winds in excess of 70mph with only an isolated, brief 
tornado threat. Lowest severe threat is over S-central MO where 
winds may gust to 60mph with the strongest storms. Although 
convection will move through rather quickly, very heavy rainfall 
is possible given intense convection with high PWATs near 2 
inches. This may lead to isolated flash flooding.

As mentioned above, hot and humid conditions are expected today,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and maximum heat indices of 90
to 100, highest over the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

A return to cooler than normal and drier conditions is expected
mid-week. More active weather returns late in the week through the
weekend as a frontal zone moves into the region and rounds of
shortwave energy move through.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Despite some possible brief MVFR conditions over BBG for the next
hour or so due to rain shower remnants in the area, VFR 
conditions should persist across all terminals through at least
06Z. During the overnight hours, warmer and more moist air will be
transported back into southwest Missouri ahead of an approaching
cold front. This additional moisture will allow for a gradual stratus
build down to MVFR ceilings beginning in the 08Z to 10Z timeframe
for SGF and BBG. Patchy fog may accompany the MVFR ceilings at the
BBG terminal, with conditions gradually improving to VFR by a 
couple hours after sunrise as the fog dissipates.

The other concern will be for scattered thunderstorms moving into
southwest Missouri Monday evening along the cold front, primarily
near or just after the end of this TAF period, especially for JLN.
Have inserted a mention for thunderstorms near the end of the JLN
TAF period to account for this.

Surface winds will generally be from the southeast at 5-10 knots
through 15Z, before increasing to 10-15 knots during the afternoon
and veering to the northwest as the cold front pushes through
tomorrow evening.



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