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fxus63 ksgf 161050 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

..12z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 222 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Remnant low pressure was moving across the area early this
morning (located just east of sgf), producing low clouds, fog,
drizzle and showers. It indeed felt very tropical like with temps
and dewpoints in the 70s. Current precipitable water values were between
2.0-2.2in. Heavier precip was located further south into Arkansas.
Low pressure will continue to move east/northeast this morning
with precip continuing across the eastern half of the area into
the afternoon hours. Instability will increase during the
afternoon and some isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly in
the Eastern Ozarks. High temps will be warmer further west with
Joplin getting close to if not reaching 90 degrees while the
Eastern Ozarks will struggle to reach the lower 80s.

Conditions will dry out tonight as the system departs however
winds will turn more southerly and 850mb temps begin rising. Low
temps in the western part of the area will remain in the low to
middle 70s.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 222 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

While the well advertised mid level ridge begins to build in on
Wednesday, one sneaky thing to watch is a subtle impulse that
moves through the northern part of Missouri during the day that
could have an effect on heat and precip chances. Some high res
and global guidance develops precipitation late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, on what looks like a decent low level
jet nosing into northwest Missouri. This precip then falls apart
during the morning but there is a semblance of a boundary and that
mid level impulse that could ignite some precip during the
afternoon across the area, however mid level temps will be warming
so coverage of any precip is in question. Will include a slight
chance of precip across southern Missouri during the afternoon and
hopefully models can hone in on this better as we get closer.
Otherwise, it will most likely be warm with highs in the low to
mid 90s. Dewpoints will likely remain in the 70s therefore heat
indicies will reach the 100-105 range. This looks to occur through
the end of the week therefore the already posted excessive heat
watch will continue in its current placement. Locations south of
the watch will likely be in an advisory at some point.

Global models are still showing a disturbance that moves over the
ridge during the weekend that might be able to disrupt the ridge
enough for US to cool slightly and may also increase precip
chances by late in the weekend/early next week, if we do indeed
end up in a slight northwest flow pattern.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 530 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

IFR and MVFR conditions with light rain/drizzle will continue
off and on through the early morning hours, mainly at bbg and
sgf. Conditions should improve to VFR by 18z. Winds will remain
light and variable through the day.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...excessive heat watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for moz055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089-093.

Kansas...excessive heat watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ksz073-097-101.


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