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fxus63 ksgf 160444 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 107 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Quiet weather is expected to continue for this period with an
upper level ridge axis moving east through the region. Well above
normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low/mid 90s.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 107 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Bottom line up front: unseasonably very warm/hot weather and
(mostly) dry weather will continue for a few more days with
finally the hint of some moderation and rain chances Fri (slight)
and into the weekend (better chances).

A strong upper level ridge will keep the area dry for several more
days with well above normal temperatures. A weakening sfc front tries
to edge into northern MO/northeast Kansas by Thu morning but it
withers underneath the ridging aloft.

By Thursday a highly amplified upper level pattern evolves with a
deep trough over the western Continental U.S. And a ridge extending from Texas
to the Great Lakes. Eventually the western trough will move ENE
into the northern plains and upper Midwest by next weekend with
the ridge flattening out over our area. A sfc front will sag south
into the region late in the period with increasing chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Overall it looks like the Ops European model (ecmwf) and GFS
ensembles may be a little slower with this eventual pattern
change, but the overall guidance agreement is fairly good.

An early autumn-like cool down is not expected, but more clouds
and a nearby weak front should knock daytime temperatures down a


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1143 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

For the 06z tafs...should have VFR conditions through the period
with upper ridging centered overhead.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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