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000 
FXUS63 KSGF 231044
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

A cold front was pushing through south central Missouri early this
morning with some scattered showers remaining along the front. The
850mb front with drier air was about 200 miles northwest across
eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. Low clouds have 
persisted across most of the area, keeping fog potential in check 
however locations across southeast Kansas into the Nevada and 
Truman Lake region may see some dense fog develop towards sunrise
as skies continue to clear and winds become lighter. Will monitor
satellite and observational trends for a Dense Fog Advisory. 

After any morning fog and low clouds erode, it will likely be a
pleasant day as surface high pressure moves across central
Missouri. High temperatures will likely approach 80. High pressure
will slide off to the east tonight with winds turning back to the
southeast late in the night. Locations across the eastern Ozarks
may see low temperatures drop into the middle 50s with most other
locations in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

The combination of weak shortwave energy and location of the right
entrance region of the upper jet will lead to some showers and
storms attempting to move back into southwest Missouri during the
day Tuesday. Right now it looks like locations southwest of
Springfield will have the highest chances. A cold front will be
located north of the area, across northern Kansas into northern
Missouri, which will develop showers and storms in the evening and
overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which will
creep into the area. While a few stronger storms are possible,
most storms will remain sub severe. 

The cold front will only slowly move south during the day
Wednesday as it becomes displaced from higher winds aloft to the
north. The atmosphere does look to become more unstable by
Wednesday afternoon and evening and do expect showers and storms
to develop across the area as the front moves through. A few
strong to marginally severe storms along with locally heavy
rainfall are both possible Wednesday night. 

The front looks to move back north as a warm front Thursday into
Friday as low/mid level winds become west/southwesterly again.
Unsettled weather looks possible Friday into the weekend with
disturbances moving into the area from the west and interacting
with a frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
above average from mid week onward. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

IFR ceilings and vis will continue through the first couple hours
of the TAF period before lifting during the mid morning. VFR 
conditions will then persist through the rest of the day and 
evening. Winds will remain out of the north until tonight when 
they become southeasterly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055-
     066>068-077-078.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097.

&&

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