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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

issued at 300 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

All eyes are focused on the mesoscale convective system taking shape over Iowa early this
morning. Low level jet out of the southwest was aiding in rapid
thunderstorm development in an area of high instability and
moisture. Instability really drops off over eastern Iowa and
propagation vectors show this taking a turn to the southeast later
in the overnight hours. This will affect our forecast later today.

Currently across the area we are still quite warm as of 1 am with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low
to mid 70s. Yuck. Our main short term focus will be with the heat
and heat index for today across the area. Main fly in the ointment
will be the MCS, and should it track across the Eastern Ozarks,
major impacts on temperatures.

In the longer term, frontal boundary will provide thunderstorm
chances and potentially severe weather chances over the area the
next couple of days, with cooler weather expected behind the front
from Thursday through early next week.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 300 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Very tricky forecast for today. Hrrr right now looks well to far
northeast with the mesoscale convective system as it evolves the remainder of tonight into
Tuesday. Believe a quicker turn to the southeast is more likely
which would affect central and eastern Missouri counties from late
morning into the afternoon. We have increased pops over those
areas and lowered temperatures due to the expected rain and cloud
cover. There will be a wind risk with the storms over the Eastern
Ozarks associated with the mesoscale convective system. The mesoscale convective system will likely cause issues
with our current heat advisory we have going for the entire County Warning Area.
At this point, with the mesoscale convective system not having turned southeast yet, do
not want to cancel any part of the advisory in case it does not
affect the area. Would hate to cancel then have to reissue later.
Would rather keep it going and have to cancel later this morning.
Expecting the remainder of the County Warning Area to reach the advisory criteria
with dewpoints climbing back into the mid to upper 70s and highs
in the mid 90s. For tonight, we should see any remaining
convection diminish by the mid evening hours. New convection
overnight should remain more focused to our north of the County Warning Area.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 300 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

A surface front will be the focus for thunderstorm development on
Wednesday through Friday with some fairly decent rain amounts
expected during that period, especially Wednesday and Thursday
nights. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s from Thursday through
early next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1212 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

VFR conditions are expected to persist. There is an outside chance
of some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but chances were too low to put into the forecast.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for moz055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

Heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for moz066-067-077-078-

Kansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz073-097-101.



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