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fxus63 ksgf 172304 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
604 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

..00z aviation update...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Today has been an absolutely gorgeous day across the Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas. Afternoon temperatures were in the 60s with
sunny skies and light winds.

This pleasant weather will continue tonight and into early Friday
morning. Some middle level clouds will move across the region
overnight as well which will help keep temperatures from falling
out of the 40s for all but valley floors and river bottoms.

Surface winds will begin to increase out of the south through the
middle to late morning and into the afternoon as a weak storm
system begins to approach the region. Winds could gust at times to
30mph as the surface gradient tightens through the day.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Showers and an isolated storm will move across the area Friday
night into early Saturday as an upper level jet Max on the eastern
edge of an upper level trough move across the plains and through
the Ozarks.

The system moves through rater quickly but a second system will
move through the upper trough Sunday night into Monday and bring
another chances for showers and storms to the region. This second
system may have more instability and forcing to work with. A few
strong or even severe storms may be possible as the system moves
through Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern will transitions to northwesterly flow aloft for
much of the remainder of next week. This will help to keep
temperatures mild and bring mostly dry weather through the end of
next week. Models do indicate a front moving through the region
late in the week but the outputs of the models have some
differences in strength and timing.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR conditions are expected at the taf sites through the period.
Winds will remain southerly overnight with a sharp increase in
gusts from morning into afternoon on Friday with some gusts over
25kts possible. Cirrus clouds will move in by Friday morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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