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fxus63 ksgf 222018 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
318 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 201 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

A large area of rain (occasionally heavy) continues to shift
northeast along the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon. This
rain is occurring in association with a short wave trough and
beneath the right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak.
Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms have developed in association
with an approaching cold front across eastern Kansas.

As we head into this evening, the main area of rain will continue
to shift northeast into eastern Missouri. Convection along that
cold front should fill in a bit and track into western Missouri
early this evening and then impact much of the area from later
this evening into the early overnight period. Showers and storms
should end across south-central Missouri either late tonight or
early Monday morning.

We have kept the Flash Flood Watch going for extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri with one more potential round of
heavy rainfall expected. We cannot rule out a locally damaging
wind gust or two with these storms given ample amounts of cape and
deep layer shear.

The prospects then look good for fog late tonight and early
Monday morning as skies begin to clear behind that passing cold
front. It would not be surprising if we need a dense fog advisory
for areas near and west of the I-44 corridor at some point.

Once the fog dissipates, Monday looks pleasant as surface high
pressure builds into the area. Highs should range from the upper
70s to lower 80s.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 201 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

That front will then lift back north into the area from Monday
night into Tuesday beneath a confluent flow aloft. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase once again starting late
Monday night and especially from Tuesday through at least
Wednesday night.

That frontal boundary should eventually lift north of the area as
we get into later Thursday as the upper level flow becomes more
southwesterly ahead of upper level energy over the southwestern
U.S. While we may see a short break from shower and thunderstorm
potential, that lifting upper level energy should bring additional
opportunities to the area to end the week.

Temperatures for much of the week should be near or slightly above


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1235 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Lingering showers from this morning will continue through the
afternoon, primarily impacting sgf and jln. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible across all taf sites along
and ahead of a cold front moving in from Kansas this afternoon
and evening, with visibilities and ceilings lowering to MVFR
ranges in the areas of showers and storms. Surface winds will
remain breezy ahead of the cold front today, gusting to 20-25 kts.
Winds will then shift to northwesterly and weaken behind the cold
front overnight into Monday morning. Reduced winds and ample
moisture from earlier rainfall will pose a risk for fog with
reduced visibilities overnight into Monday morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am CDT Monday for moz055-056-066-067-

Kansas...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am CDT Monday for ksz073-097-101.


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