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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 325 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Rain will continue developing across the area tonight as an upper
level shortwave provides large scale lift and a strong low level
jet feeds warm, moist air into the region. Precipitable water
values of 1-1.5 inches are nearly three times the daily
climatology. This rain is coming ahead of a surface low that will
move northeast from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes
region, draping a cold front across the area Thursday. The cold
front will settle just south of the County Warning Area by tomorrow afternoon and
provide the focus for overrunning precipitation across southern
Missouri Thursday night and Friday morning.


Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 325 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

The upper level low will then traverse the County Warning Area Friday afternoon and
evening with one final round of light rainfall. Storm total
rainfall amounts through Friday night are expected to approach or
exceed one inch along and south of Highway 60.

Surface high pressure will then build into the Great Plains by
Saturday, forcing any remaining rain showers south and east of the
area by Saturday. Temperatures behind the front will cool
significantly than recent days and this chill will linger through
the weekend.

Beyond Sunday, there is some consensus among the ensemble guidance
that another strong low pressure system will move across the Midwest
by the middle of next week with moderating temperatures ahead of
this system. Each deterministic model and run depict significant
differences in timing, location, and intensity. Therefore, forecast
confidence remains low in terms of sensible weather next week.



Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continues through the
forecast period. A cold front will move through on Thursday, which
will turn winds to the northwest. A wave then rides up the front,
bringing more widespread precipication and lowered ceilings later
in the taf period. Low level wind shear will occur at all sites tonight due to
strong wind fields aloft.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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