Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 212314
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 157 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019
Most of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas are
experiencing one final day of heat and humidity. All locations
are in the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is some variance to dew
points due to an outflow boundary which is moving southwest across
the area. South of a Nevada to Bolivar to Willow Springs line,
dew points are in the lower to even middle 70s. This is resulting
in heat indices between 95 and 108 degrees. North of that
boundary, dew points are around 70 degrees with heat indices
between 93 and 102 degrees.
As we get into late this afternoon and early this evening, widely
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along that boundary.
Coverage will remain limited due to the presence of a dry air mass
in the middle and upper portions of the atmosphere. Locally gusty
winds will be possible if any of these storms do develop.
Much better chances for storms will spread southeast across the
area later tonight as a much welcome cold front approaches. We are
generally looking at these storms pushing into southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri sometime in the 9 to 11 PM time
frame. These storms will then spread southeast across the
remainder of the area overnight.
Damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms, mainly
across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri in the
vicinity of an Storm Prediction Center slight risk for severe storms. We will also
have to monitor the potential for flash flooding given a rather
moist air mass in place. Href ensembles do indicate some potential
for localized 2 to 4" amounts. We will have to closely watch
locations where convection trains. One Prospect for training
could be that outflow boundary.
Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will then persist into
Monday morning as that front pushes southeast across southern
Missouri. We could even see some pockets of drizzle behind the
front with a low cloud deck. We went slightly below the model mean
for high temperatures Monday due to cool air advection and
morning/early afternoon cloud cover. Highs should only warm into
the upper 70s and lower 80s with much drier dew points also
beginning to advect into the region.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 157 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019
Surface high pressure will slowly build southeast towards the
region before finally settling over the Missouri Ozarks by
Wednesday. Dry weather and below normal temperatures can be
expected with highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Lows will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
We will see a slight warming trend towards the end of the week as
weak height rises overspread the area. Highs are expected to
creep back up into the middle and upper 80s by Saturday. We are
seeing no signals for precipitation through the end of the week.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends for thunderstorm impacts tonight and
into Monday morning.
An upper level disturbance has already forced thunderstorms to
develop across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity
will become more numerous as the disturbance spreads across the
Ozarks this evening and through the overnight hours.
There is a damaging wind risk with some of the more intense storms
tonight, along with excessive rainfall.
Otherwise, if storms are not directly impacting an airfield, VFR
conditions are expected. Flight conditions will drop if storms and
precipitation does impact an airfield.