Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krnk 170054
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
754 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019
an area of deepening low pressure has moved off the South
Carolina coast this afternoon. High pressure will sit over the
region into Monday. A weak cold front will pass over the region
Tuesday with a stronger frontal passage by next weekend.
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 215 PM EST Friday...
The closed low that was tracking across the Gulf states this
week has moved offshore and merged with a surface coastal low.
This system is becoming a strong noreaster, plaguing the
Carolina coast with wind and rain. The closed low tracked
further to the south than expected, which has allowed more dry
air to entrain into our area today. Adding to the dryness is
high pressure over New England wedging south into western North
Carolina tonight. The combination of these two systems bringing
in dry air has kept most of the area cloud-free and for now
rain-free. Overnight, models have low clouds moving across the
Piedmont, but with a dry northeast flow, we do not expect any
rain to fall outside of a sprinkle or two during the early
morning hours Sunday.
Pressure gradient between the incoming wedge of high pressure
and the Carolina noreaster has brought breezy and gusty
conditions to areas along and east of the Blue Ridge. The
highest of the winds have been over the Piedmont today with
gusts up to 30-35 miles per hour. Breezy conditions will likely remain
across the foothills and Piedmont counties through tomorrow
Temperatures overnight will range from the 20s across the
mountains to low to mid 30s east. Cooler northeast winds are
expected Sunday to keep highs from getting out of the 40s.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 1230 PM EST Saturday...
NAM and European model (ecmwf) are deeper with the short wave coming out of the
northern rockies and across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys by
Monday actual closing off a small upper low at the base of the
trough. Models also depict a cold pool crossing the mid
Atlantic area on Monday with this wave as well as some broad
upper diffluence late Sunday night into Monday morning. Enough
moisture and westerly component to the surface and low level
winds to keep clouds over the mountains Monday and Monday night.
Will keep in lots of clouds Sunday night and Monday, especially
over the mountains but will have forecast dry for now. Will
stay on the cooler side of guidance for maximum temperatures
Sunday and Monday due to the amount of clouds expected. Cooler
temperatures behind the short wave for Monday night and Tuesday
are captured reasonably by the nmb guidance.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 1245 PM EST Saturday...
Long range models were in decent agreement through Thursday
with upper ridging over the eastern United States. Solutions
diverge on Friday and Saturday. GFS was much faster bringing a
strong piece of the southwest upper low east into the
At the surface high pressure will cover the mid Atlantic
states, Tennessee Valley and southeast United States on
Wednesday. The high moves offshore late Thursday then a cold
front crosses the area on Friday. Another high follows for
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 750 PM EST Saturday...
Deepening low pressure will remain remain off the Carolina
coast as it moves very slowly to the northeast. The center of
the low will remain far enough away to keep the region just on
the periphery of the circulation, so most taf sites will see VFR
conditions with a light east to northeast wind through the
However, klyh and kdan will see cigs trend down to MVFR late
tonight and northeast winds will be brisk with gusts 20kt to
25kt overnight. Cigs will improve to VFR Sunday morning and
winds will gradually diminish toward the end of the valid
Extended aviation discussion...
High pressure builds into the area behind the departing low, but
a weak upper- level disturbance will bring a chance of showers
and a brief period of sub-VFR conditions on Monday, followed by
a return to good flight conditions as high pressure builds in
again through the middle of next week.