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000 
FXUS61 KRLX 181854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the southeast Saturday night into 
Sunday. Cold front late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure slowly drifts east across the Ohio River 
Valley tonight, eventually becoming centered over western 
Pennsylvania by early Saturday morning. Light winds and clear skies 
will promote strong radiational cooling with temperatures dipping 
down into the 33 to 36 degree range across the northern half of the 
forecast area. Have expanded frost advisories to cover these 
locations even though coverage may be somewhat patchy, especially 
near rivers where fog will likely develop. Further south, a 
combination of increasing southerly flow to due to high shifting off 
to the east as well as increasing upper level cloudiness as some 
influence from potential TC 16 will limit frost potential with lows 
only dropping into the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s.

Upper level clouds continues to increase through the day, especially 
across the southern half of the forecast area in response to 
increasing moisture from TC 16 with rain eventually working its way 
into our extreme south by late Saturday afternoon. Despite the upper 
level cloudiness, increasing southerly flow will still yield highs 
in the lower 70s for most on Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Friday...

Remnants from Tropical Storm Nestor will pass southeast of the
area Saturday night. Models remain in disagreement on the extent
of moisture advection into the area with the hi res models more
bullish on passing s/w trof tapping into moisture from Nestor,
allowing rain to overspread the mountains and perhaps into
central WV. I stayed close to NBM solution but toned down its
QPF across the mountains to better reflect the eastern solutions
from the global models. 

S/W trof pulls east Sunday taking the rain with it for what
should be a great afternoon with temperatures running 5 to 7
degrees above normal. 

Brief S/W ridging Sunday night and early Monday will give way to
falling heights as the mean longwave trof reamplifies over the
upper Midwest amid strong surface cyclogenesis. This system will
become occluded over the western Great Lakes with the surface
front slated to arrive Monday night with showers overspreading
the area from west to east. Despite the baroclinic zone being
fairly progressive, QPF amounts could approach an inch in spots
given strong jet dynamics and some deep moisture advection from
the Gulf of Mexico. It will be rather warm ahead of this system
for the daylight hours Monday with afternoon highs reaching well
into the 70s, with perhaps an 80 degree reading across the Coal
Fields. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Upper trof moves in Tuesday but atmospheric column dries out
nicely save for some CAA enhanced cumulus across the north. This
will allow temperatures to return to more seasonable levels.
Enough gradient wind will exist to mitigate frost Tuesday night
except in the more protected hollows/valleys.

Surface high passes to our south and east Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the upper trof axis passes east. This will 
result in tranquil and seasonable weather to continue for 
Wednesday. There may be more of a frost threat Wednesday night 
with the high just to our south.

WAA commences Thurday as yet another amplifying system organizes
in the Plains. This will result in temperatures climbing back
above normal to end the work week while generally remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure slowly drifts east across the Ohio River
Valley tonight. Given clear and calm conditions in the vicinity
of the high, expect river valley fog to develop toward daybreak
across the northern terminals. Further south, increasing
southerly flow along with cirrus beginning to build into the 
region will limit fog potential. Mid/upper level cloudiness will
continue to build into the region from the south through the day
Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Rain from remnants of potential tropical cyclone 16 will arrive
across the southern half of the forecast area Saturday night
with IFR conditions at EKN and BKW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ006>011-
     014-016>020-028>032-039-040-516-518-520-522>526.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

$$

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