Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 181749
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
unseasonably warm and dry weather to persist through the week.
A cold front approaches for the beginning of next week.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 130 PM Wednesday...
East to southeasterly flow this afternoon will continue eastern
upslope stratus over the southern mountains. This stratus will
breakup as the east-southeast flow lessens towards sunset.
Dry and warm high pressure will again dominate our weather with
clear skies tonight and sunny skies again on Thursday. Some
isolated River Valley fog is expected to form again in the
sheltered valleys of the WV northern mountains.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
as of 145 PM Wednesday...
Dry and above normal temperatures to continue in the short term
period with ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate the
eastern U.S. There could be an isolated shower during the period
from any weak disturbance passing, but overall, dry weather
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
as of 150 PM Wednesday...
The dry spell continues this weekend. Sunday could be an
enhanced fire danger day, with low relative humidity and gusty winds out ahead
of approaching front, but red flag conditions not expected.
Chances for precipitation finally return to the area late Monday
night into Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the area.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 130 PM Wednesday...
VFR conditions will continue throughout the area
through the forecast period, except for bkw. MVFR upslope
stratus on east-southeast flow will start to lessen towards late this
afternoon and will become VFR scattered towards sunset. Some
MVFR/IFR fog develops at ekn during the early morning hours
towards daybreak Thursday. VFR conditions are expected
everywhere after 13z Thursday, with light east-southeast flow continuing.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: coverage and timing of overnight fog may
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h M M l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Thursday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible each morning,
especially at ekn.