Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 141807
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
107 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
split flow pattern develops across eastern U.S., With only
clouds from a system to the south expected. Quiet weather
with gradually warming temperatures through the weekend.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 1240 PM Thursday...
No significant changes necessary in the near term period. Dry
weather, with a few clouds, particularly across northern zones
from a passing shortwave. Otherwise, mostly clear and cold
tonight with light to calm surface winds.
Similar weather expected for Friday. An upper level low and
surface reflection will develop across the southeastern U.S.
Late tonight and on Friday, spreading clouds into the area on
Friday, mainly affecting far southern/eastern zones, with
precipitation expected to remain far south of the forecast area.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as of 100 PM Thursday...
Surface high pressure will generally remain in control through the
short term. A surface low moves up the East Coast through the
weekend, but the forecast area is expected to stay dry. Despite a
gradual warming trend, temperatures will continue below normal
through the weekend.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
as of 145 am Thursday...
Some uncertainty on exact progression of synoptic pattern for the
first half of next week. With that said, both GFS and European model (ecmwf) have an
upper level trough swinging overhead Tuesday. A consensus blend
gives a chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some snow
flakes possible in the mountains. The main uncertainty revolves
around another East Coast system. European model (ecmwf) is much stronger with this,
and while impacts from this should remain well to our east, the
storm may eventually show some impact on the upper trough crossing
the mid Ohio River valley and central Appalachians during the
same time. In general, temperatures should continue running a
few degrees below normal.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 1245 PM Thursday...
VFR through the entire taf period. Southwesterly winds generally
5-10 kts with occasional gusts in the teens through 21z,
becoming light overnight. Light westerly winds on Friday after
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Friday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.