Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 071832
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019
high pressure moves east Sunday. Rain develops Sunday night and
Monday with a strong cold front Tuesday. Colder for the middle
of next week with some snow showers.
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 1230 PM Saturday...
Pesky low stratus hanging tough across southeast WV and SW Virginia thus far.
Hi res model soundings suggest this will slowly erode from
north to south this afternoon.
At the surface, high pressure moves into the northern mid
Atlantic this evening and offshore overnight as flow veers to
the southeast late. This may result in some clouds across the
eastern slopes, otherwise we are looking at just some thin
cirrus overnight across northern counties. Temperatures
overnight were hedged lower in the valleys/hollows while staying
close to nbm elsewhere.
Low level moisture will begin advecting toward the
region near dawn, as 850 mb flow picks up out of the SW. This will
be allow some clouds to overspread the area Sunday morning,
particularly across NE Kentucky and southeast Ohio. Meanwhile, upper level
moisture will advect in from the west in the form of cirrus
which will mask any sunshine by afternoon. 12z guidance has come
in a bit lower for high temperatures tomorrow, likely owing to
increase in cloud cover. Still, we should see our readings
climb to above normal with many locations reaching the mid 50s
across lowlands as the mountains stay cool in the 30s and 40s,
dependent on elevation.
Short term /Sunday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 130 PM Saturday...
Models show some prefrontal precipitation entering from the south
late Sunday night into Monday morning, moving eastward as the low
pressure system to the west approaches the area. The models show
strong agreement of the cold front entering the area Tuesday
morning, passing through by Tuesday evening. Precipitation
transitions to snow Tuesday night with upslope snow possible into
Long term /Thursday through Friday/...
as of 130 PM Saturday...
The GFS and Euro show high pressure entering the area Thursday
bringing drier and cooler weather after the frontal system. The Euro
shows this high pressure system approaching slightly slower than the
At the end of the period, models are showing much more disagreement
with the incoming system. Both the GFS and Euro show the low
pressure system in the southwest moving toward the east. The Euro is
phasing the northern and southern stream energies while the GFS is
not. The Canadian shows the low remaining off in the southwest, thus
leading to low confidence in the behavior of this system.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 1235 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions at all terminals through the valid taf period.
Lingering low stratus across SW Virginia will gradually erode through
the remainder of the afternoon. As surface flow veers to the
southeast overnight, some stratus may develop along the eastern
slopes but should remain east of bkw. Otherwise, just some
passing cirrus overnight is expected across the region.
Some clouds will develop Sunday morning associated with some
modest low level moisture advection, generally in the 4-6 kft
range for bases and primarily along and north of the Ohio River.
Meanwhile, high level moisture will increase in the form of cirrus
by late morning.
Surface flow will remain light and variable this evening,
veering to the southeast overnight. Southeast surface flow will
continue Sunday and remain less than 10 kts at the taf sites.
Some gusts to 20 kts is possible at bkw by midday.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Sunday...
IFR possible Monday/Tuesday in rain. IFR possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday in snow showers, more likely in the mountains.