Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 191819
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
high pressure in control through mid week. Upper level disturbances
could bring afternoon storms through Thursday. Hot through the
first half of the week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 200 PM Monday...
Weak but broad surface high pressure system will continue to
provide dry and warm weather through Tuesday. Water vapor
satellite imagery show very dry atmosphere at all levels
reaching our local region. With a very relaxed pressure
gradient at the boundary layer adn mostly clear skies expected,
radiational cooling will likely take place tonight, to drop
temperatures into the upper 60s lowlands. However, fog formation
is not anticipated due to dry low levels.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit hotter, with plenty of
sunshine expected and light wind. Highs could reach the low to
mid 90s lowlands, ranging into the low 60s.
Short term /Wednesday through Friday/...
as of 210 PM Monday...
Unsettled weather to continue in the short term period, with an
upper shortwave moving into the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong earlier in the evening. Bulk of convection will taper off
throughout the day on Wednesday as this wave moves east, but could
still see an isolated shower/storm chance later in the afternoon
A cold front will then move into the area Thursday and Thursday
night, with additional rounds of showers and storms, and drier air
gradually filtering into the area from the north. Still some
uncertainty in the timing of this front, and how quickly it will
clear the cwa, and therefore coverage of convection. For now,
maintained a blend of the models, which keeps a chance area wide
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
as of 215 PM Monday...
Overall, much drier and less humid Saturday behind the front.
Humidity will increase gradually Sunday and Monday, along with the
return of diurnally driven thunderstorms.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 640 am Monday...
Clouds will cover most of the area from a decaying system to the
west. This will aide to suppress most fog development this
morning as well the accompanying dry air in the low levels.
Most sites will see a few patches of fog which will dissipate
slightly after sunrise. Mainly a VFR day across the region for
Monday and the rest of this forecast period. There are chances
for showers and possibly an isolated storm around pkb/heights in the
early afternoon and at virtually any site later in the day,
however confidence is low on timing.
Light southerly flow changes over to westerly in the late
afternoon with gusts in the low teens. With high instability
and an upper level trough providing lift in the late afternoon
we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated storm near or
at any terminal during daytime heating as mentioned above. With
light flow and low shear any development should be sub-severe,
however storms have potential to train or backbuild with weak
flow. This could promote lengthly inclement weather such as low
cigs/visible as well as gusty winds. Expect any convection to
dissipate around sunset and a better chance for fog development
for Tuesday morning.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: diurnal thunderstorms in the afternoon
could be more prominent and affect terminals, however
confidence and chances are low so the timing and mention of
them directly affecting sites where left out of tafs.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h
After 18z Tuesday...
IFR possible with showers and storms mid week, stratus and
valley fog redeveloping by Friday morning.