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000 
FXUS61 KRLX 180621
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and dry weather to persist through the week. 
A cold front approaches for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

With a surface high to our north and an upper level ridge axis
to our west, quiet weather is expected through the near term
period. East to southeasterly flow will push patches of stratus
up the eastern slopes of the mountains, with just some diurnally
driven cumulus west of the mountains. Have an isolated shower
mentioned across the far southern forecast area this afternoon
as a weak upper level shortwave trough slides through, but most
will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Wednesday... 

Abnormally dry conditions will continue through the period 
under a persistent surface high pressure. Afternoon temperatures
will top into the lower 90s in some spots across the lowlands. 
Nighttime temperatures will drop into the lower 60s, still a 
little above normal for this time of the year. An isolated 
afternoon shower cant be completely ruled out with any passing 
weak disturbance, but overall chances too low for a mention in 
the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Wednesday...

The dry spell continues this weekend. Sunday could be an 
enhanced fire danger day, with low RH and gusty winds out ahead 
of approaching front, but at this point looks to warrant nothing
more than a special weather statement/no red flag warning 
anticipated at this time.

Hoping for some rain with a crossing cold front Sunday night 
and Monday. The front approaches from the northwest Sunday 
night, spreading showers or storms Monday and Monday night. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

Stratus along the eastern slopes will bring periods of MVFR into
BKW and the Greenbrier Valley. EKN should fog in with cool air
over warmer river water. Eastern flow just off the surface
should keep other sites from fogging. Any fog will dissipate
quickly after sunrise. Stratus could linger along the eastern
slopes through much of the day, but think it will break up and
lift in BKW by early afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of overnight fog may 
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/18/19
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Early morning dense river valley fog possible each morning,
especially at KEKN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ

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