Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 221825
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019
high pressure through Thursday night. A system possible for the
weekend, although timing is uncertain.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 145 PM Tuesday...
Secondary cold front will cross this afternoon, helping to keep
the cumulus field in place and possibly a rogue shower across
northern counties toward dusk. Otherwise, boundary layer
mixing will begin in earnest behind the secondary front
allowing for some 25kt gusts across the area.
Pressure gradient remains across the region tonight amid weak
cold air advection. This will keep the boundary layer mixed and thus negating
fog formation as well as keeping any frost at Bay. There may be
some stratocu developing in the northern mountains and adjacent
lowland counties overnight with a mainly clear sky elsewhere.
Temperatures will bottom out to more seasonable levels.
Abundant sunshine will be noticed Wednesday with surface high
passing just to the south and east. Winds will gust 15 to 20kts
during prime afternoon mixing hours as temperatures top out a
degree or two below normal.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
as of 210 PM Tuesday...
A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Wednesday
night. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
on Thursday before stalling in Ohio. This front should not
provide any precipitation for the area and will retreat back
northward Thursday night.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 210 PM Tuesday...
Models continue to struggle with the timing of the next system.
The NAM and GFS would bring precipitation into the area on
Friday, while the Canadian would wait until Saturday, and the
European model (ecmwf) until Saturday night. Main issue is how fast the energy
will eject out of a trough over the southwestern US. Typically,
the models tend to be too fast with this energy. Due to the
uncertainty, will keep pops in the chance category and not be
too specific with timing.
Another front is possible early next week, but timing of this
system remains uncertain as well.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 200 PM Tuesday...
Post frontal showers and low cigs will exit the mountains by
19z, possibly followed by a brief period of MVFR stratocu. A
secondary front will cross during the remainder of the afternoon
with just a slight chance of a passing shower for the northern
terminals. Otherwise increasing boundary layer mixing will allow
southwesterly winds to gust near 25 kts at the terminals.
Gusts diminish with sunset but boundary layer will remain mixed
tonight, negating dense fog formation. As such VFR conditions
are forecast overnight, save for a period of MVFR cold air advection stratocu
VFR continues Wednesday as surface high passes south and east.
Some gusts 15-20kts may be realized during prime mixing hours.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h M M h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency M h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Wednesday...
morning valley fog possible Thursday and Friday.