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000 
FXUS61 KRLX 170953
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
553 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest flow gives way to high pressure building in 
through the end of the work week. Surface low passes southeast 
over the weekend. Next cold front arrives early next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 553 AM Thursday...

Made a quick update to hourly temperature trends as many
locations have been running slightly warmer than was
anticipated. Other than that, the rest of the forecast remains
on track at this time

As of 352 AM Thursday...

Areas of upslope precipitation along the backside of a deep 
cyclone in New England are showing some weak echoes on radar
this morning, particularly across northern areas. Generally
looking at light rain/drizzle with most of this activity, but
thermal profiles may be cold enough to allow flakes to mix in 
along the higher ridgetops into the mid morning hours. Accumulations
will be hard to come by given shallow moisture profiles, but a 
dusting remains possible. Precipitation will linger through the mid
afternoon in the northeast mountains, but will eventually taper
off as surface high pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley 
continues to build into the area. In fact, already starting to 
see evidence on satellite imagery of the drier air building in 
near the Tri- state region as the western edge of the extensive 
stratocumulus field is slowly dissipating. However, not 
expecting cloud cover to completely dissipate throughout the 
day, especially for northern areas as an inversion in the 
750-700mb layer will trap enough low level moisture in the area 
to maintain the stratocumulus deck into the afternoon. The cloud
cover and continued cold air advection will keep temperatures 
around 10 degrees below normal this afternoon, with most areas 
reaching the mid/upper 50s. With the 850mb flow around 45 kts
through the afternoon, will keep the current Wind Advisory in 
effect in Pocahontas and Randolph counties.

Winds will gradually diminish this evening and overnight as high
pressure moves across the Ohio Valley. With a gradual decrease
in winds overnight and continued decrease in cloud cover,
a chilly night ahead is expected. Thought about the need for
frost headlines across parts of the area, but will mention in
the HWO for now as some uncertainty does exist as to how quickly
clouds will clear out and how quickly winds diminish.
Regardless, it will be chilly with lows generally in the mid
30s, but sheltered valleys have the potential to get cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will remain over the area for Friday 
into Saturday. Frost is a possibility late Friday night over the
WV mountains and northern WV. Temperatures will moderate
considerably Saturday afternoon as the high slides off to the
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Models showing a southern system moving across the southeastern
US and possibly grazing our region. Models still have 
differences on how much this system will affect our region. 

A strong cold front will then push through Monday night or 
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 553 AM Thursday...

Mainly MVFR stratocumulus field is in place across the region 
this morning, but latest satellite imagery does show that the 
western edges of the cloud deck are slowly eroding away. 
However, cloud cover will be much more persistent across 
northern areas as drier air will take longer to move northward. 
Thus, some stratocumulus will linger through the day as low 
level moisture remains trapped underneath an inversion aloft. 
Cloud bases will generally be around 5-7 kft this afternoon, so 
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will remain rather
gusty out of the NW in the morning and afternoon with gusts 
around 15-20 kts across the lowlands and between 30-40 kts in 
the mountains. Winds will gradually decrease by Thursday evening
as high pressure continues to settle into the area.

MVFR conditons will once again develop tonight across mountain sites 
as low level moisture lingers. Also can't completely rule out IFR 
conditions towards the end of the TAF period across mountains sites, 
with some stratus continuing to linger across the adjacent 
lowlands. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

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