Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 150028
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
728 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
a weak-dry cold front reaches southeast Ohio and northern WV
tonight. Quiet weather with gradually warming temperatures
through the weekend.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 730 PM Thursday...
Only minor tweaks to sky grids. Dry-weak cold front to reach
portions of southeast Ohio and northern WV tonight. Rest of
forecast remains on track.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as of 100 PM Thursday...
Surface high pressure will generally remain in control through the
short term. A surface low moves up the East Coast through the
weekend, but the forecast area is expected to stay dry. Despite a
gradual warming trend, temperatures will continue below normal
through the weekend.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 145 am Thursday...
Some uncertainty on exact progression of synoptic pattern for the
first half of next week. With that said, both GFS and European model (ecmwf) have an
upper level trough swinging overhead Tuesday. A consensus blend
gives a chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some snow
flakes possible in the mountains. The main uncertainty revolves
around another East Coast system. European model (ecmwf) is much stronger with this,
and while impacts from this should remain well to our east, the
storm may eventually show some impact on the upper trough crossing
the mid Ohio River valley and central Appalachians during the
same time. In general, temperatures should continue running a
few degrees below normal.
Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 633 PM Thursday...
High confidence on widespread VFR conditions expected through
the period. The exception low confidence on MVFR ceilings
developing behind the approaching dry cold front reaching pkb
overnight. Light southwest flow will become calm this evening.
Light westerly winds on Friday after 15z.
A dry-weak cold front should reach southeast Ohio tonight. Model
consensus indicate isentropic flow parallel to pressure gradient
at the ground level along frontal passage.
Metars and satellite imagery indicate a 10k feet cloud deck
streaming northeast, ahead of the front, across portions of
southeast Ohio and northern WV. Tracking cloud elements on
satellite images suggests a 5,000 feet cloud deck should reach
the northern portions of our forecast area 04-06z. The sref
suggests ceilings should deteriorate to MVFR, staying just east
of pkb overnight. However, sref lacks of good initialization.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1hrly 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 00z Saturday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.