Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 171923
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
223 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019
weak systems early in the week give way to high pressure mid
week. Stronger system and more active for the end of the work
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 135 PM Sunday...
Cold front that slipped into the area last night oozes back
north as a warm front tonight into Monday. Fog and stratus may
form in the middle Ohio Valley along and north of the warm
front, approximately along the Kanawha River Valley, overnight
tonight. If it does, it may take much of Monday for it to
An upper level trough over the Midwest this afternoon is progged
to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it digs into the
area overnight and Monday morning, and then crosses the area
Monday afternoon. Despite the dynamics associated with this
system, there will be little surface reflection and moisture
available to the system through Monday, so nothing more than a
potpourri of high and mid cloud is expected.
Central guidance temperatures and dew points were in line with
well clustered guidance, so no changes were needed. The
exception was on the NAM and its MOS guidance, which reflect
much lower highs on Monday over the middle Ohio Valley from east
central Ohio through the northern WV lowlands, on account of the
stratus and fog it depicts there.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 220 PM Sunday...
The short term will continue on with the series of shortwaves
meandering through the area, with light pops straddling the
higher ridgetops into Tuesday morning, some of which could
transition over into a wintry mix. Another shot at light snow
accumulations along the mountains will be possible overnight
Tuesday before high pressure takes hold for the conclusion of
Temperatures rise into the low to mid 50s Wednesday afternoon
in response to a moisture starved warm front. High pressure at
the surface will prompt a partly sunny and dry day ahead of the
active pattern setting up for the next several days.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
as of 220 PM Sunday...
An unsettled weather pattern sets up for the end of the work
week and into the weekend. Beginning with a strong low pressure
system and accompanying cold front, tracking into the eastern
half of the lower 48 Thursday into Friday. Models continue to
trend slower with its arrival, so maintained central guidance
timing and intensity with this event. With this slower arrival,
afternoon highs Thursday will be able to rise slightly higher
than once perceived 24 hours ago, now allowing low to mid 60s to
transpire for areas outside of the mountains.
Once the rain arrives, it'll be here to stay into the start of
the weekend with perhaps a bit of a reprieve overnight Friday
before another low tracks into central Appalachia Saturday
afternoon. Consensus between models is lacking this far out in
the forecast, but will hopefully align better over the next few
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
as of 135 PM Sunday...
VFR conditions are expected into tonight. Southern portions of
the area including hts, crw and bkw will have VFR conditions
through the period, except for a period of MVFR stratocu and
mist at bkw on southeast flow early Monday morning.
Farther north, dense fog and stratus may form overnight along
and north of a warm front, affecting pkb, ckb and possibly ekn.
If it forms, it may take much of the day Monday to completely
Light east to southeast surface flow through tonight will become
light west to southwest on Monday. Light southeast flow aloft
will veer to light south tonight, light southwest overnight, and
then light west on Monday.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Monday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: stratus and fog may not form overnight or
Monday over the middle oho valley. MVFR conditions in the
mountains Monday morning.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Monday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.