Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 200645
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 am EST Wed Nov 20 2019
high pressure build in today, remaining into Thursday. Next
storm system Friday and Saturday with rain and possibly some
brief snow. Cooler over the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 145 am Wednesday...
Models showing lower levels of the soundings in the mountains saturating
with moisture early this morning, then slowly cooling. There is a
slight chance that this could create some drizzle or freezing drizzle.
As daytime heating takes over, this threat should end.
A high pressure system will then build in for today and tonight,
with clouds gradually scattering then clearing.
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
as of 138 PM Tuesday...
Mid/upper level ridging prevails Wednesday night and gradually
flattens during the day Thursday. A couple of potent vort maxes
in the 500 mb flow should advect east across the area during the
day Thursday. However, moisture availability will be greatly
limited and for now have opted to keep Thursday rather dry (and
pleasantly milder). Moisture then comes pouring back into the
region by late Thursday night and Friday. Guidance suites want
to stall a surface front near the County Warning Area on Friday, resulting in a
rather wet day (potentially). Ultimate placement in the surface
boundary will determine how wet or dry the day actually
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 145 PM Tuesday...
Most guidance suites want to develop an area of low pressure
late this week across the lower MS River Valley and ride it NE
along the aforementioned surface front. This should result in
another round of rain for Friday night into Saturday as the area
low pressure moves near the region. Depending on how far
south/east the boundary is located early Saturday morning, the
precip could start off as light snow before switching over to
all rain. Cold air advection should then kick in during the
afternoon which much cooler conditions expected over the
weekend. High pressure then prevails for early next work week.
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 1240 am Wednesday...
Ceilings will generally be MVFR to VFR this morning. Some
visibility restrictions in fog can be expected across portions
of southeastern Ohio and northern WV early this morning. This is
also a slight chance of some patchy drizzle this morning. If
this were to occur, freezing drizzle would be possible in the
northern WV mountains and at flight levels in the 2500 to 7000
Clouds will gradually lift and become more scattered today,
clearing Wednesday night.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing, density, and location of fog could
vary early this morning.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Wednesday 11/20/19
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency h h h h h h h h M M M h
heights consistency h h M h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h M h h M M h M M
ekn consistency M M h M h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h M h h h h
ckb consistency M M M M M M M M M M M M
After 06z Thursday...
IFR possible Friday and Friday night in rain.