Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 181740
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1240 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019
weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid
week. Stronger system for the end of the work week.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 1230 PM Monday...
Overall, general idea in terms of forecast in the near term
period remains the same. Upper low moving into the mid Ohio
Valley will move across the area later today and tonight, with
increasing low level moisture as it does so. This will set the
stage for the possibility of patchy drizzle tonight, with the
possibility of patchy freezing drizzle across the mountains. Due
to the overall isolated nature, and very light amounts
anticipated, elected not to issue any winter weather headlines
concerning this, but will put a mention in the severe weather potential statement and have
future shifts monitor the potential.
Better chances for precipitation occur on Wednesday as a second
upper shortwave cross the area. Low ceilings, and areas of light
precipitation, are expected. Model soundings would suggest a
continuation of drizzle across the forecast area, but could be
enough lift during the event tomorrow to warrant light rain or
even light snow showers across the higher terrain. General
inclination is to lean towards mainly drizzle on Wednesday, but
in keeping with consistency with surrounding offices went with
slight chance rain/snow showers.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 140 am Monday...
An upper level trough will move across the area on Tuesday.
Moisture is limited with this system, so only very small chances
of precipitation. Any precipitation that does occur should be
A warm front will then push northward Wednesday night. This
system will also have trouble tapping any moisture, so expect
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 140 am Monday...
A strong system will bring showers to the region for Thursday
followed by a cold front Thursday night or Friday. Models have
actually diverged a bit with the timing of the front as all
models have slowed this system down.
Confidence takes a further dive over the weekend as the models
continue to struggle with the energy ejecting out of the trough
over the southwestern US.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 1235 PM Monday...
VFR conditions through at least 06z, when ceilings will lower
to widespread MVFR and areas of drizzle will develop, with the
possibility of freezing drizzle across the northern mountains.
Isolated IFR cigs are also possible across the higher terrain
after 09z. Light surface winds during the period.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of MVFR ceilings may vary tonight and
early Tuesday morning.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h M M M M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
After 18z Tuesday...
IFR possible Friday and Friday night in rain.