Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 131540
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1040 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
sunnier today, but continued cold. Dry for the second half of
the work week and the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1035 am Wednesday...
Sunny and cold this morning, slowly warming into the 30s for The
Lowlands. No major changes to the forecast.
As of 530 am Wednesday...
Made a few minor tweaks to hourly temp and sky grids this
morning. Clouds are continuing to erode in the mountains where a
few flurries and ice crystals will persist for another hour or
As of 119 am Wednesday..
Persistent snow showers continue to gradually diminish across
the mountains with nearly all areas expected to see an end of
the falling snow by sunrise. Lingering cloud cover will
gradually mix out during the remainder of the night as well. In
general, a rather quiet weather day is expected today as
surface high pressure center moves overhead. Daytime temps today
will be warmer than tuesday's values, but not by much. Only a
slow warming is expected today, and although forecast highs are
prog to be above freezing in some areas...that will likely only
happen for a brief amount of time. Tonight, a quick drop in
temps this evening should occur with gradual rise in temps then
occurring overnight as low level warm air advection initiates.
Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
as of 135 am Wednesday...
Short wave trof axis will gradually cross Thursday into Friday with
little fanfare, other than some clouds. Meanwhile, energy will
hang back across the Red River valley as the longwave trof lifts
into eastern Canada. This will help to induce weak cyclogenesis
along the northern Gulf Coast with low pressure tracking to the
southeast coast Friday and becoming quite the rain maker for
those folks into Saturday. However, this will have no impact to
our sensible weather other than some cirrus.
Despite the moderation from recent days, temperatures will
remain 6-8 degrees below normal for highs and lows.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
as of 135 am Wednesday...
Despite a complex synoptic pattern across the eastern US this
weekend and early next week, we look to remain primarily dry
with just intervals of clouds to contend with. Southeast coastal
low and its parent upper level system will track to the mid
Atlantic coast before heading northeast. As it does so energy
diving southeast through western High Plains will help to
reestablish the mean trof across the east to start the new work
week. Temperatures will moderate to just a few degrees below
normal to end the work week, before backing down a few degrees
early next week.
Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 531 am Wednesday...
Lingering MVFR clouds at kbkw/kekn should rapidly mix out very
early in the taf period. After that occurs, widepsread VFR
should prevail today and tonight with only some passing cirrus at
times. Weak/vrb sfc winds today.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Thursday...
no widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
record low temperatures may be challenged Wednesday morning.
Below are the records for Wednesday November 13th.
Charleston 16 1911
Huntington 17 1911
Parkersburg 17 1986
Clarksburg 15 1926
Elkins 10 1920
Beckley 12 1986