Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 211952 cca
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019
rain chances increase tonight into Friday as a cold front moves
through. Another storm system Saturday brings widespread wet
conditions. Briefly dry early next week.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 100 PM Thursday...
A cold front will sag through the area late tonight into Friday
before checking up somewhere across the Tennessee Valley into SW Virginia.
Light showers will moving into southeast Ohio this evening with perhaps
some sprinkles east of the Ohio River this afternoon/evening. Rain
will increasing in coverage and intensity mainly east of the Ohio
River Friday morning as a decent jet streak pivots through,
helping to provide better dynamics with the baroclinic zone.
Rain will end from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon as
the front speeds up and shifts southeast with the passing of the
upper level S/W trof. Expect a decent clearing line with this
system across southeast Ohio and northern WV as drier air advects in
throughout the column in the afternoon. Some partial clearing
may make into NE Kentucky and c WV as well. Temperatures will remain
mild overnight with a midnight high likely, followed by a non
diurnal trace Friday amid falling afternoon temperatures.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as of 201 PM Thursday...
Aforementioned surface front is prog to stall south of the
region Friday night and then shift back north during the day
Saturday as a sfc low develops along the front. The low is
expected to deepen as it moves northeast from the lower MS River
Valley to across Tennessee and eventually across West Virginia by late
Saturday. Combination of this occurrence with an approaching
strong 500 mb trough and 110+ kt h25 jet will result in a rather wet
and chilly day for Saturday. A brief mix of rain/snow may occur
across the northern County Warning Area early in the onset of precip before
transitioning to all rain. As the surface low kicks NE, cold air
advection will kick in with the thermal column quickly cooling.
Any lingering rain should transition over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday, primarily in the mountains.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 210 PM Thursday...
Quieter weather expected Monday before another storm system
arrives on Tuesday, bringing yet another chance of precip to the
area. After that system exits (potentially right before
thanksgiving), a couple of days of drier weather may then prevail
as high pressure tries to influence area weather.
Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 100 PM Thursday...
Mid and high clouds with gradually lowering bases are expected
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Some light rain showers or
sprinkles may occur at any site through this evening as well,
but no visibility restrictions are anticipated.
Cold front will sag into the area late tonight and Friday with
cigs/visibility lowering into MVFR and IFR as rain coverage
Light S to southeast surface flow veers to the SW overnight, increasing
to 10 kts. Some gusts to 15 kts this evening are possible
heights/pkb should any light rain Showers Pass overhead. Otherwise, expect a
wind shift with frontal passage to the north-northwest Friday with speeds around 10
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of deteriorating conditions may vary
an hour or two early Friday morning.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Friday...
IFR possible Saturday into Saturday night, in rain, and
possibly brief snow as it ends.