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fxus61 krlx 181031 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

unseasonably warm and dry weather to persist through the week.
A cold front approaches for the beginning of next week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Wednesday...

Another quiet morning. Adjusted temperatures based on current
obs and trends.

As of 140 am Wednesday...

With a surface high to our north and an upper level ridge axis
to our west, quiet weather is expected through the near term
period. East to southeasterly flow will push patches of stratus
up the eastern slopes of the mountains, with just some diurnally
driven cumulus west of the mountains. Have an isolated shower
mentioned across the far southern forecast area this afternoon
as a weak upper level shortwave trough slides through, but most
will remain dry.


Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
as of 205 am Wednesday...

Abnormally dry conditions will continue through the period
under a persistent surface high pressure. Afternoon temperatures
will top into the lower 90s in some spots across The Lowlands.
Nighttime temperatures will drop into the lower 60s, still a
little above normal for this time of the year. An isolated
afternoon shower cant be completely ruled out with any passing
weak disturbance, but overall chances too low for a mention in
the forecast.


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
as of 205 am Wednesday...

The dry spell continues this weekend. Sunday could be an
enhanced fire danger day, with low relative humidity and gusty winds out ahead
of approaching front, but at this point looks to warrant nothing
more than a Special Weather Statement/no red flag warning
anticipated at this time.

Hoping for some rain with a crossing cold front Sunday night
and Monday. The front approaches from the northwest Sunday
night, spreading showers or storms Monday and Monday night.


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 630 am Wednesday...

Any fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. MVFR stratus
could linger along the eastern slopes through much of the day,
but think it will break up and lift in bkw by early afternoon.
Skies will clear again tonight. Went with a persistent forecast,
brining dense fog into ekn around 07z. Surface winds will
gradually shift from easterly to southeasterly through the day.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Thursday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: coverage and timing of overnight fog may

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency M M M h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h M h h h h h
bkw consistency M M M M M M M M h h h h
ekn consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency l l l h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h M h h h h h h h h h

After 12z Thursday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible each morning,
especially at kekn.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...



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