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fxus61 krlx 161036 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
636 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Synopsis...
weak cold front crosses today with isolated showers possible.
High pressure and upper ridge dominate latter half of the week.
Another weak cold front approaches beginning next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Monday...

Only made some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points based
on current obs and trends.

As of 130 am Monday...

A weak mid level impulse is bringing clouds to the Ohio River
valley early this morning. Radar showing a few echos with this,
but think these are mid level and not making it to the ground so
did not include any pops through sunrise.

A fairly weak cold front will sink through today and tonight.
Maintained isolated showers generally along and west of
I-79 and US-119 corridors as limited moisture will hamper
precipitation. Any showers should taper off this evening as we
daytime instability wanes. Did not include any thunder mention
with the showers today due to limited moisture

One of the harder parameters to forecast for today is dewpoints.
Models struggle with dry air mixing days around here... as
evident yesterday when dewpoints dropped way below guidance.
However, with some moisture pooling along the front and less dry
air in the mid levels to mix down, do not anticipate as much of
a drop today. Still, opted to go a bit below guidance across
the east using a blend of the hrrr and wrfarw which often do the
better on the lowest dewpoint days.

&&

Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
as of 204 am Monday...

Guidance suggest high pressure will be in control with dry
weather prevailing through the period. The exception could be
afternoon convection developing along the eastern mountains per
model consensus Tuesday. With plenty of sunshine and low level
moisture, expect above normal temperatures with a muggy Tuesday
night. There will be a cooling trend from Wednesday through the
end of the week as colder airmass moves south east of the
Appalachians to provide colder and drier conditions.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 204 am Monday...

High pressure will persist first part of the weekend with near
normal temperatures for mid September. A cold front approaches
from the northwest late Sunday.

&&

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
as of 630 am Monday...

More mid level clouds than expected kept fog at Bay this
morning. Expect widespread VFR today. Could get an isolated
shower as a weak cold front drifts through. Winds will start off
southerly today, shifting to west to northwest behind the front later
today into tonight. Expect more fog tonight in the Post frontal
air...although models do indicate low stratus could play a role
as well.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: an isolated shower could cross a taf site
later today. Fog density and timing tonight may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l M h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 12z Tuesday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible each morning.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

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