Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 191259
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
859 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
unseasonably warm and dry weather persists through the weekend.
Weak cold front crosses Monday into Monday night. High pressure
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front approaches Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 900 am Thursday...
no changes necessary.
As of 630 am Thursday...
Quiet weather expected to continue through the near term period
with high pressure to our NE and an upper ridge to our SW.
Generally stuck with a consensus blend for all grids, however
did drop dew points some this afternoon with lots of dry air in
the mid levels. With this in mind, also bumped afternoon highs
up a degree or two over the consensus blend numbers across the
central and western forecast area.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
as of 222 am Thursday...
Dry spell continues under surface high pressure through the
weekend. A slight warming trend is expected into the weekend.
Since no rain has fallen during the last two weeks, soils are
very dry and vegetation will begin to suffer. The outlook for
the next few weeks calls dry and above normal temperatures
Although plenty of sunshine will provide enough heating, the
atmosphere will remain very dry aloft to allow only an isolated
shower during the afternoon hours.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 222 am Thursday...
Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday. With an increase
in winds, low humidity and hot temperatures, a threat for
enhanced fire danger day could be expected. However, red flag
conditions are not expected.
Models suggest a weak, moist-starved cold front crosses Monday
into Monday night to provide some relieve in precipitation.
However, rainfall amounts will not be enough to alleviate the
Another cold front approaches Thursday for another opportunity
to receive some rain.
Aviation /13z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 630 am Thursday...
Quiet weather with VFR conditions expected at most taf sites
through the period with southeast flow at the surface. Included valley
fog at ekn tonight. Winds should a bit lighter tonight than we
had last night, allowing better fog formation conditions.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Friday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: fog may not materialize at ekn.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h M h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l l h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Friday...
early morning River Valley fog possible each morning, especially