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fxus61 krlx 171141 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 am EST sun Nov 17 2019

Synopsis...
weak systems early in the week give way to high pressure mid
week. Stronger system for the end of the work week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Sunday...

Made some minor updates to morning temperatures to reflect
latest observations, otherwise no changes required.

As of 145 am Sunday...

Very dry air in place (single digit dew points) across our
northeastern zones this morning will make morning temperatures
tricky. Thus far east-southeasterly flow has largely limited
decoupling of the boundary layer, but could see a few more
protected valley locations plummet into the upper teens toward
daybreak if they do manage to decouple. Otherwise, lows this
morning mainly in the mid 20s. Despite a chilly start, afternoon
highs will be mainly in the mid 50s for The Lowlands and upper
30s to mid 40s for the mountains as low level flow turns more
southeasterly in response to weakening influence of the coastal
storm off the Carolinas and increasing influence of trough over
the Midwest.

A few high clouds prior to daybreak this morning will give way
to mostly clear skies through the daylight hours today.
Increasing upper level cloudiness is expected this evening with
broken to overcast sky cover spreading from west to east ahead
of the aforementioned trough approaching from the western Great
Lakes - as one could expect with the peak of the leonid meteor
shower occurring early Monday morning.

&&

Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
as of 130 am Sunday...

An upper level trough will move across the area on Monday, followed
by another one on Tuesday. Moisture is limited with both these
systems, so most areas will remain dry.

A warm front will then push northward on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
This system will also have trouble tapping any moisture, so expect
dry conditions.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
as of 130 am Sunday...

A strong system will bring showers to the region for Thursday
followed by a cold front Thursday night. Confidence remains fairly
high through Thursday night.

Confidence takes a dive however for Friday and Saturday as models
diverge considerably. Models are struggling with how much cold air
makes it into our region as well as with another system's timing and
placement.

&&

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 630 am Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals over
the next 24 hours. Mostly clear conditions through the daylight
hours will give way to increasing upper level cloudiness late
this evening as an upper level disturbance approaches the
region. Winds mostly light, less than 4kt except for 6 to 10kt
for a few hours this morning at bkw.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Monday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: stratocumulus edging by bkw this morning
may briefly produce MVFR ceilings prior to sunrise.

Experimental table of flight category
objectively shows consistency of weather forecast office forecast to available model
information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 12z Monday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rpy/jp

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