Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 180649
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 am EST Mon Nov 18 2019
weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid
week. Stronger system for the end of the work week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 100 am Monday...
An upper level trough and a weak sfc low over the Ohio Valley
will become more negatively tilted as it moves through the
region today. With the lack of moisture available as this system
moves through, only expecting mid to high clouds throughout the
day today. System to exits later today, but yet another weak
upper level system will rotate through tonight and early Tuesday
morning. Moisture increases ahead of this system and could see
a few sprinkles or a wintry mix in the highest of elevations of
the WV mountains towards daybreak on Tuesday. Rest of the area
should remain dry throughout the forecast period. Generally
stayed with consenus guidance temperatures throughout.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 140 am Monday...
An upper level trough will move across the area on Tuesday.
Moisture is limited with this system, so only very small chances
of precipitation. Any precipitation that does occur should be
A warm front will then push northward Wednesday night. This
system will also have trouble tapping any moisture, so expect
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 140 am Monday...
A strong system will bring showers to the region for Thursday
followed by a cold front Thursday night or Friday. Models have
actually diverged a bit with the timing of the front as all
models have slowed this system down.
Confidence takes a further dive over the weekend as the models
continue to struggle with the energy ejecting out of the trough
over the southwestern US.
Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
as of 1225 am Monday...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with possible
MVFR ceilings from ckb/ekn/bkw line and the rest of the WV
mountains after 00z Tuesday. Weak upper level trof and surface cold
front will move through the region today. Ceilings lower throughout
the day and into this evening as this system moves through. Calm
to southerly winds 5-10kts will gradually shift to the west
northwest by tonight, as the front moves through.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of MVFR ceilings may vary Monday night.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Monday 11/18/19
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h M h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Tuesday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.