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fxus61 krlx 180540 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

unseasonably warm and dry weather to persist through the week.
A cold front approaches for the beginning of next week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 140 am Wednesday...

With a surface high to our north and an upper level ridge axis
to our west, quiet weather is expected through the near term
period. East to southeasterly flow will push patches of stratus
up the eastern slopes of the mountains, with just some diurnally
driven cumulus west of the mountains. Have an isolated shower
mentioned across the far southern forecast area this afternoon
as a weak upper level shortwave trough slides through, but most
will remain dry.


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
as of 155 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will remain dominant during the forecast period,
with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. An isolated
shower cant be completely ruled out during the period from any
passing weak disturbance, but overall chances too low for a
mention in the forecast.


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 155 PM Tuesday...

High pressure remains in control over the weekend, but upper
ridge will gradually start to break down in advance of an
approaching system and cold front, which will move into the area
Sunday night into Monday, finally providing a chance for
precipitation across the area. Sunday could be an enhanced fire
danger day, with low relative humidity and gusty winds out ahead of approaching
front, but at this point looks to warrant nothing more than a
Special Weather Statement/no red flag warning anticipated at
this time.


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 140 am Wednesday...

Stratus along the eastern slopes will bring periods of MVFR into
bkw and the Greenbrier valley. Ekn should fog in with cool air
over warmer river water. Eastern flow just off the surface
should keep other sites from fogging. Any fog will dissipate
quickly after sunrise. Stratus could linger along the eastern
slopes through much of the day, but think it will break up and
lift in bkw by early afternoon.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Thursday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: coverage and timing of overnight fog may

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Wednesday 09/18/19
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h M l l l h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h
bkw consistency h h h M M M M M M M M M
ekn consistency l M M M M M M M h h h h
pkb consistency h h h l l l l h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h M h h h h h

After 06z Thursday...
early morning dense River Valley fog possible each morning,
especially at kekn.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...



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