Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 krlx 151427 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Synopsis...
a weak cold front drifts south across the area tonight with
benign conditions expected through early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 925 am Friday...

Visible satellite this morning shows high clouds thinning out
over the area, so adjusted sky conditions accordingly.
Otherwise, only other tweaks made were hourly temperatures based
on current observations around the region.

As of 625 am Friday...

Made some minor tweaks to hourly temps and sky grids to reflect
observed trends, otherwise forecast was on track.

As of 130 am Friday...

Upper level cloudiness through the overnight associated with
departing jet streak will give way to mostly clear skies by late
morning. A cold front lays out across the Great Lakes today
before slowly dropping south across our forecast area late
tonight into early Saturday as a backdoor cold front. Not much
moisture with this feature, but may see a scattered to possibly
broken stratocumulus deck trying to develop behind it by early
Saturday morning. Southern stream system starts to work its way
up the Atlantic coast today won't be much of a player for our
sensible weather, other than a little bit of a boost to
northeasterly winds with the aforementioned backdoor cold
front as gradients tighten.

&&

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
as of 230 am Friday...

Quiet weather with high pressure in control. Aforementioned
cloud cover associated with backdoor cold front Saturday morning
will scatter out quickly by midday. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies expected with temperatures remaining below normal.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 230 am Friday...

A series of shortwaves will drop into the longwave trough
established over the eastern U.S. Throughout most of next week.
These will drive intervals of cloud cover and keep temps from
warming above seasonal norms.

The first series of shortwaves pass by aloft Monday into
Tuesday with a few showers possible. A few snow showers are
possible in the mountains late Tuesday into Tuesday night with a
marginal upslope component in cold advection. A brief break in
the shortwave train occurs midweek, then another one arrives
into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Models indicate a better
likelihood for precip with this feature with a moisture tap from
the southwest so will advertise increasing pops on Thursday.
This should be mainly rain under a warm advection regime.

&&

Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 620 am Friday...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through early
Saturday morning. Upper level cloudiness associated with a
departing jet streak will give way to mostly clear skies by late
morning today with mostly light winds through the daylight
hours. Winds will switch around to the northeast overnight in
response to a developing low off the mid-Atlantic coast and weak
backdoor cold front dropping in from the north. MVFR
stratocumulus ceilings will be possible along and behind this
wind shift with the best chances across the northern sites -
pkb, ckb and ekn from 06 through 12z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...



Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: coverage of MVFR ceilings may vary Saturday
morning.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 12z Saturday...
MVFR ceilings possible for a few hours Saturday morning then
clearing.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Abe/jp

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations