Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 211035
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
535 am EST Thu Nov 21 2019
dry warm front crosses this morning. Rain chances increase
tonight into Saturday along a stalling frontal boundary with
some snow mixing in as precipitation ends Saturday night.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 120 am Thursday...
A dry warm front will push northward across the area today as
high pressure slides off to the southeast. This will allow for a
southerly flow with milder temperatures.
Clouds and chances for showers increase Thursday night as a
cold front pushes in from the northwest.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
as of 315 am Thursday...
Rain will continue Friday morning along and ahead of a cold
front slowly drifting south as synoptic ascent associated with
departing 150kt h250 jet streak over the eastern Great Lakes.
The front is expected to stall along or just south of our
southern border Friday evening with rain ending for all but
those southern locations for much of the overnight as drier air
works its way in behind the front. This will yield overnight
lows at or just below freezing across the northern half of the
forecast area which may present some light mixed precipitation
issues Saturday as a surface low developing on the remnant
frontal boundary in response to approaching jet streak spreads a
nose of warm air and precipitation north across the region
through the early morning hours. Overall, minimal wintry
impacts expected with little to no freezing/frozen precipitation
and a quick warm-up melting anything that does manage to fall
in a very narrow window Saturday morning.
Rain persists all day Saturday, finally tapering off from west
to east Saturday night with a little snow mixing in as
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...
There will be a lull in precipitation Sunday and Monday with
chances increasing again Tuesday into Wednesday with the
approach of the next system. Will start to see the makings of a
massive shared energy area jet covering much of the contiguous
US Wednesday with 50kts down as low as h850 over our
neighborhood Wednesday morning. Unclear this far out how much of
this momentum will be able to be transported to the surface with
stronger flow shifting out of the area to the north by the time
there is any decent cold air advection, but at least a brief
period of breezy to locally windy conditions seems reasonable
this far out.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 530 am Thursday...
Fog in northeastern WV will dissipate quickly this morning. After
the fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions today.
A cold front will bring lowering clouds with showers also causing
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Friday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of fog in northeastern WV
dissipating could vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Thursday 11/21/19
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency M M M h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Friday...
IFR possible Friday, and again Saturday into Saturday
night, in rain, and possibly brief snow as it ends. IFR
possible in fog Friday night.