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fxus61 krlx 141030 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
530 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure departs today, but continued below normal
temperatures expected. Quiet weather expected through the
weekend.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 524 am Thursday...

Adjusted hourly temps some for early this morning as weak warm
air advection has been a little slow to develop this morning.
Also increased cloud cover across the southern County Warning Area some to
account for thicker mid and upper level cloudiness that is
ongoing.

Krlx 88d indicates some light echoes over central and southeast
Ohio early this morning, but a large dry layer in the lower levels
of the atmosphere should preclude any precip from reaching the
ground.

As of 121 am Thursday...

Continued rather quiet wx expected for today and tonight with
only some upper level, to perhaps a bit of mid level, cloudiness
occurring at times. Surface high pressure center will continue
to shift farther east of the area, resulting in a south-southwest low level
flow. Temps will continue to moderate some today, with highs
noticeably warmer than the past couple of days. However, some
weak troughing may occur with 850 mb temps actually lowering a bit
during the day. As such, I have undercut guidance temps be a
few degrees today...especially given that there is still some
snow on the ground in many areas.

Another cold night expected tonight as a very weak surface
front drifts in the area. Continued the story of undercutting
guidance's forecast lows by a few degrees.

&&

Short term /Friday through Sunday night/...
as of 145 am Thursday...

Quiet in terms of sensible weather through the weekend. Low
pressure along the southeast coast will not have any impacts
here other than perhaps some cirrus in the mountains Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures will remain generally 4-6 degrees below
normal.

&&

Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
as of 145 am Thursday...

Generally dry weather continues into early next week, despite
the evolving complex synoptic pattern across the eastern half of
the country. Mean longwave trof will re-establish itself over
the eastern US, with various vorticity maxima rotating through.
At this distance the primary impact would be intervals of
clouds, though some light showers can't be rules out midweek.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal.

&&

Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 524 am Thursday...

VFR through the entire taf period. Sct to bkn mid to upper level
cloudiness at times through much of the period, otherwise,
weak/calm sfc winds early in the taf period, becoming sswrly 5
to 10 kts during the day.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Friday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: some low-end non-convective low level wind
shear impacts may occur early in the taf period from khts to
kpkb.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thursday 11/14/19
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 12z Friday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rh/30

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