Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 191012
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
612 am EDT Fri Jul 19 2019
life threatening heat is expected Friday and Saturday with dome
of high pressure and southerly flow in control. Sunday remains
hot. Cooler next week with a cold front passage.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 210 am Friday...
Overall, no significant changes were necessary to the inherited
forecast. High heat and humidity expected across the region
today, with strong ridge dominating much of the country, and
southerly flow. Much of the day should be dry with ridge in
place, but an isolated pop up shower or storm can't be totally
ruled out this afternoon. There is quite a bit of uncertainty
concerning a disturbance that will move across the Great Lakes
and dive southeast towards PA late tonight, and whether or not
it will have any affect on our cwa/I.E. If the track and timing
will allow for convection to develop across our area or not.
For now, with bulk of models tending to trend towards a drier
solun, have elected to leave pops out of the forecast for late
tonight and allow future shifts to re-evaluate.
Of course the big news maker today is the heat and humidity with
strong ridge, temps in the lower to mid 90s and dew points in
the 70s. Feel that current heat headlines look good at this
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
as of 315 am Friday...
The more active regions of the upper levels will begin a
southward drift in the short term that will eventually lead to a
significant change in airmass going into next week. Until the
baroclinic zone associated with this region drops far enough
south into our neck of the Woods, we will have to deal with 2
more days of dangerous heat for the weekend. Saturday could end
up being the hottest day in the forecast for some, but lowland
mid 90s are expected with some isolated upper 90s in the mix for
Saturday. The dewpoints in the lower 70s make it a slam dunk
once again for heat headlines, but will use headlines for day 1
only to prevent confusion.
The upper level dome parked over the Ohio Valley will slowly
start to give way Saturday night and Sunday, and will see the
convection aligned with the baroclinic zone drop into the
southern Great Lakes. Will still be another hot day on Sunday,
probably slightly cooler from the previous 2 days, but still
could be worthy of more heat headlines again. With some
infiltration of upper level waves into the are from the
southwest, the convective chances will increase modestly
through the weekend. If nothing else, should be a denser cumulus
field Sunday in response to those waves aloft. Rain will be
welcome in some pars of the upper Kanawha valley and southern
mountains as convective activity has largely stayed clear of
these areas as of late.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 315 am Friday...
The cold front that will be pushing southward slowly over the
weekend will finally get the kick to speed it up through the County Warning Area
from a trough axis aloft swinging through Monday/Monday night.
Expecting showers and storms with the upper level and surface
features, with the cold front through the mountains by Tuesday
morning. The heat will subside given the likelihood of rain
Monday and the cooler airmass filtering in Tuesday. Tuesday Max
temperatures will be below normal, and some lowland areas may
not reach 80 degrees.
Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 610 am Friday...
Areas of MVFR/local IFR stratus has formed across the higher
terrain. In addition, patchy valley fog has developed along some
River Valley locations. Expect a general improvement to VFR
after 13z, with light surface winds. Areas of stratus and fog
possible again tonight, mainly after 06z.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of dissipation of stratus and
associated restrictions may vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency M M M h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency M M M h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency M l l M h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l M h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency l l l h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h M h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Saturday...
late night/early morning IFR possible near river valleys over
WV...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday
Heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
Ohio...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday
Kentucky...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday