Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 krlx 172325 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Synopsis...
disturbances passing north this weekend. Very warm to hot the
first half of next week. Cold front by late in the week.

&&

Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 725 PM Saturday...

Convection mainly remained north of the area, and diminished
quickly this evening. Made some minor edits to the temps, winds,
and sky cover this evening. River Valley fog has decreased in
coverage steadily over the last few days with drying, and have
that trend continuing.

As of 130 PM Saturday...

A surface high pressure system currently centered near Jackson,
Kentucky will slowly drift east through the period, with weak
southwesterly flow developing tonight into Sunday. This will
bring added low level moisture for Sunday. Today will be mostly
dry with the high pressure system in control. A convective
complex currently over central in should brush by to the NW,
with an isolated T-storm possibly scraping across the far northwest
forecast area. High res models are in decent agreement keeping
this activity just outside of the cwa, but its close enough
that low end pops seems warranted.

A weak upper level shortwave trough passes by to the north
overnight, but again the surface high should keep keep activity
to the north of the forecast area. Areas of River Valley fog are
expected with flow remaining weak.

With a bit better moisture on Sunday, have isolated to scattered
showers and storms across mainly the mountains. The GFS has more
widespread quantitative precipitation forecast chances, but think it is too aggressive with mid
level moisture.

Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period.
Heat indices are expected to be in the upper 90s across the
southwestern forecast area Sunday afternoon.

&&

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 215 PM Saturday...

Heat wave is prog to continue for at least the first half of the
upcoming work week. 850 mb temps are prog to warm to approx 22 c
for most of the County Warning Area on Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon sfc
temps likely to warm into the mid 90s across the lower
elevations (few areas could flirt with 100 degrees). Combination
of the high sfc temps along with higher dewpoints could result
in some areas reaching heat advisory thresholds (however dry
soil conditions could result in greater than progged diurnal
mixing...and thus lower heat indices). Convective chances early
next work week are not all that great as lack of significant
moisture depth and very warm mid level temps should preclude
much in the way of convective initiation. Although at least
isolated diurnally driven convection is likely each day given
the very warm temperatures.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 215 PM Saturday...

Wednesday will likely be another warm and humid day, although a
slow lowering of height fields aloft should allow for slightly
greater convective chances across the region. A cold front is
then prog to push across the County Warning Area sometime Thursday-ish with
additional shower and thunderstorm chances. This front should
help lower temps back to near normal levels by late in the week.

&&

Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 725 PM Saturday...

Continuing the trend of decreasing coverage and duration of fog
in the river valleys as the area continues to dry out. The only
LIFR in the forecast is at ekn. Otherwise, there only brief
periods of IFR fog expected tonight in clear skies and calm
winds.

VFR cumulus field develops again Sunday.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Monday...

Forecast confidence: medium to high.

Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog may vary tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h M l l
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h h M l M l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h M l l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M l

After 00z Monday...
morning valley fog with IFR conditions possible again Monday
morning. IFR possible with showers and storms mid week.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations