Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
153 am PDT sun Oct 20 2019
Building high pressure off of the Pacific coast will bring
decreasing winds and a warming trend going into the first half of
this week. Much colder temperatures and breezier conditions are
possible by next weekend.
Forecast adjustments were fairly minimal, but temperatures were
raised a little for Wednesday and Thursday considering the weak
nature of the front expected to move through the region.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track to have decreasing winds
through mid-week with a warming trend.
High pressure will be building into the region over the next three
days allowing for weakening winds, warming temperatures, and
strengthening inversions. After some light northerly breezes today,
winds become much lighter for Monday and Tuesday with atmospheric
mixing becoming very limited. Expect morning inversions to
strengthen in valleys with the potential for some slight air quality
degradation by Tuesday morning for the Reno Metro area. Afternoon
highs will warm into the low/mid 70s for western Nevada and upper
60s to around 70 degrees for Sierra valleys.
Winds will increase a little for Wednesday and Thursday as flow
shifts northerly then easterly. Moderate gusts are expected for
ridge tops in the Sierra with some slight downsloping west of the
Sierra crest towards the Central Valley of California.
Temperatures will cool a little behind the front, but this cooling
was tempered a little since cold air advection behind the front is
projected to be relatively weak.
The bigger story is the potential for cold temperatures to move
into the region late next weekend. While gefs/GFS are catching up
to the ec, the latest ec shows high temperatures in the 50s for
next Sunday. This leads to questions about wind strength and high
temperatures for next Saturday and will largely depend on frontal
timing which is indiscernible this far out. By and large,
temperatures were trended cooler Saturday night into Sunday while
winds were increased. The only other nugget of useful information
is that the next wave will largely be dry based on current wave
trajectory. We'll be watching the development of this wave this
Conditions will remain VFR with much lighter winds through
Tuesday. A dry, weaker wave will push a surface front through
the region by the middle of the week resulting in a prevailing
wind shift, but nothing in the way of precipitation. Boyd