Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1035 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
a cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure over the upper
Midwest will build into NC Wednesday through Thursday. This will bring
much cooler and drier air to NC.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1035 PM Tuesday...
Much cooler air has overspread all of our region this evening, with
the line of thunderstorms having swept offshore. The trailing
stratiform rain area has also moved east of Interstate 95, with
only a few sprinkles left around Clinton and Goldsboro. Elsewhere,
the skies were slowly clearing in the mountains and foothills, with
limited clearing from the Piedmont eastward to the coast. The
upper level flow is SW to NE, and the cold front is parallel
to the upper level flow. Therefore, clearing will be slow especially
in the mid and upper levels. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s will
feel incredibly good, especially since most of the area has not
even been in the upper 60s since July 2, or 3 weeks. Raleigh and
Fayetteville hit 68 and 69, respectively on July 2. Greensboro
has not been below 70 for all of July, except for today!
Short term /Wednesday and Wednesday night/...
as of 325 PM Tuesday...
With the cold front to our east, look for the high pressure that's
centered over the Central Plains to move east and usher in a drier
and cooler airmass into central NC! Meanwhile, today's cold front
will stall just off the East Coast, with the remnants of td3 moving
NE along this boundary. Fortunately for US, the cloudiness assoc
with that boundary will remain well to our east. As such, enjoy the
pleasant weather with highs in the low-mid 80s and pleasant more
Fair weather will continue Wednesday night, with very comfortable
night time temps. Lows from the upper 50s in the cooler spot, to
low-mid 60s everywhere else across central NC.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 325 PM Tuesday...
Little change in the pattern through the rest of the work week with
the old boundary stalled to our east and high pressure gradually
shifting from the Ohio Valley east to the northeast coast. Right
now it appears that the bulk of the moisture assoc with the boundary
to our east will remain to our east, but latest guidance shows the
western edge of it backing up to the roughly to the I-95 corridor.
Thus look for increasing cloudiness as you head east of Raleigh,
with mainly clear skies west. However, any rain assoc with the
aforementioned should remain east of our County Warning Area. Temps Thursday and
Friday will gradually increase, but remaining a couple deg below
normal (mid-upr 80s).
Over the weekend we will begin to see temperature and moisture
increase over the Carolinas as the mid/upr ridge east of the Bahamas
begins to shift westward. Will trend back toward climo with pops
and temps during this time.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 1030 PM Tuesday...
Widespread low ceilings will give way to generally VFR ceilings later tonight.
There may be some patchy MVFR to IFR ground fog, especially in the
kfay, krdu, and krwi areas.
VFR conditions can be expected Wednesday with high pressure building
in from the west.
Outlook: high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic States
and provide for mainly dry, VFR conditions through the rest of the