Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpub 190944 
afdpub

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
344 am MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Upper level ridging will remain over southern Colorado for the
entirety of the short term forecast period, but the high pressure
circulation will begin to migrate west. As the high pressure center
propagates westerly, the pgf at the surface will tighten,
creating southerly winds around 15 to 20 mph over northeastern New
Mexico. The southerly winds will force air up the slopes of the
Raton Mesa, which may spark some isolated late afternoon to early
evening thunderstorms. The thunderstorms that form will mainly
impact eastern Las Animas, Baca, bent, and Prowers counties. Cape
values will be low over southeastern Colorado at the Point of
convective initiation, so only weak storms are expected.
Otherwise, dry and hot conditions are expected over the rest of
the region. The record high temperatures in Alamosa, Colorado
Springs, and Pueblo are as followed: 88f (1945), 94f (2001), and
100f (1973), respectively. The forecast high temperatures for
Alamosa, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo are as followed: 85f, 94f,
and 101f, respectively. So, new record high temperatures are
probable in Colorado Springs and Pueblo. Overnight lows will be
slightly above normal, with values in the mid to upper 60s over
the plains, the mid to upper 40s over the mountain valleys, and
the 30s to 40s over the mountains. Creede and Westcliffe have
continued to be exceptionally cold last night, but more moisture
in the atmosphere will increase the low temperature forecast to
the lower 40s for both locations.

There will be localized critical fire weather conditions located
over the southeastern plains, but the winds will not be strong
enough for long enough to issue any fire weather products.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 340 am MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

An upper level ridge will be over the area on Tue and the moisture
over the area will be somewhat limited. However, there will still
be the potential for isolated to scattered showers and tstms, mainly
over the mtns and high valleys, with a few also over the Palmer
Divide and the Raton Mesa. Temps on Tue will still be above
average, with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 over the southeast
Colorado plains, and in the mid and upper 80s in the upper Arkansas and
San Luis valleys.

A front moves into southeast Colorado Wed morning and brings low level
upslope flow for the afternoon hours along with increasing moisture.
A weak disturbance in the flow, along with the increased moisture,
are expected to result in much high chances for showers/tstms over
southern Colorado Wed afternoon and evening. Moisture remains in place on
Thu and precip chances will remain high over the mtns and high
valleys, with scattered precip along the I-25 corridor and possibly
some isolated storms over the far southeast plains. Temps will be a
little cooler Wed and Thu. There could be some locally heavy rain
and an increased risk of flash flooding over area burn scars on Wed
and Thu.

Another disturbance moves by to the north late in the day Fri but it
looks a little drier. The forecast models keep precip chances
somewhat limited on Fri and will go with some isolated to
scattered precip chances. Temps will be a little warmer again.

The upper ridge becomes centered to our west on Sat and sun, with
the better moisture being to the south and east. Thus, warmer and
drier weather is expected this coming weekend, although there will
probably still be some isolated storms over and near the mtns.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 340 am MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected for kals, kcos, and kpub throughout the
forecast period. Diurnal surface flows are anticipated for all
sites.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations