Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpub 070524 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1024 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 242 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

Current GOES water vapor imagery and upper-air analysis are
indicating that ridging continues to propagate into rockies with
the ridge axis located over the intermountain west region. Visible
satellite imagery is showing some high clouds streaming over the
southern portions of Colorado at this time, while latest
observations are showing temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s in
the high valleys and upper 40s with a few lower 50s across the
plains with light wind in most areas. The main exception is near
the Kansas border where a deck of thick stratus clouds were
hovering over this area for a majority of the morning and early
afternoon. Temperatures there are in the 30s to lower 40s.

Tonight into Saturday...northwesterly flow aloft is expected to
become more westerly as the upper-level ridge propagates through the
region and flattens out over Colorado. As a result, dry weather is
expected tonight and Saturday. With the westerly flow, Lee troughing
is expected to strengthen and move into the plains overnight.
Warming aloft will continue into the overnight as well, which is
expected to keep temps a bit warmer tonight in the higher terrain
along the eastern slopes, where lows tonight should be in the upper
20s to lower 30s. Single digits and teens are expected in the
typical cold pockets across the upper Rio Grande and San Luis
valleys. Westerly flow aloft increases through the day Saturday as
the latest system approaches from the Pacific northwest. This
increased flow is expected to bring gusty winds to mountains and
breezy conditions to the I-25 corridor Saturday afternoon. This
will result a warmer afternoon across the plains, where highs are
expected to reach the 60s in many places. The high valleys remain
cooler with highs staying near 40.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 242 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

Late Sat night, in the westerly flow aloft ahead of the next weather
system, some light snow showers will be possible along the
Continental dvd as moisture increases, but conditions will be dry
elsewhere. Breezy westerly winds in locations near the eastern
mtns should help keep low temps relatively mild Sun morning. On
sun an upper trof moves into the Great Basin, with moisture ahead
of this system increasing over western Colorado. Thus, snow chances will
increase along the Continental dvd, with a few inches of
accumulation likely. Sun afternoon some snow is also expected to
spread into the Sangre de Cristo mtns, but only light
accumulations will be possible. Temps on sun across southeast Colorado
and the high valleys will be above average, with highs in the 50s
to around 60 across the southeast plains, and in the upper 30s and
lower 40s in the high valleys.

The upper trof moves over Colorado Sun night and Mon, and a cold front
will move through eastern Colorado early on Mon. Precip chances will
decrease over the mtns on Mon, and the southeast plains may see
slight chances for some light snow behind that front. Temps will be
cooler on Mon.

The upper level system will exit the area Mon night, with dry
weather then expected Mon night and Tue. Highs on Tue are expected
to be around or slightly below average.

A weak upper ridge over the area on Wed will mean continued dry
weather and warmer temps. An upper trof moves over Utah and Arizona by
late in the day Wed. The operations GFS and the ensemble mean have
an open wave moves across Colorado Thu, but several of the ensemble
members are showing an upper low cutting off around the northern
Baja California region, while the European model (ecmwf) closes off a low that moves over
southern Arizona. At this time, the models still keep the weather dry
for Thu over southern Colorado. We may then see another upper system
begin affecting Colorado on Fri, bringing some precip to the area. However
there are some timing differences between forecast models that lead
to a low confidence in the forecast for next Fri at this time.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1018 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; kpub, kals and kcos. However, T/TD spreads will get pretty
low at kpub and kals during the early morning hours, so I cannot
rule out 100% that there may not be some ground fog towards
morning. Winds will be light tonight, but modest west winds (10-15
knts) will likely occur at kpub and kcos tomorrow afternoon.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations