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fxus65 kpub 190507 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1107 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Currently, southern Colorado experiencing mostly sunny and dry
conditions early this afternoon with some shower and thunderstorm
activity noted just north of the County Warning Area at 3 PM MDT. In addition,
continued above seasonal temperatures observed this afternoon with
numerous 70s and 80s being reported over lower terrain locations.
Also, afternoon wind gusts between 35 mph and 40 mph have been
recently observed near Leadville, Salida, Monarch Pass
and Wolf Creek Pass respectively.

For tonight, the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
over northern sections should be ending around sunset in combination
with above seasonal mid-September minimum temperatures. Gradient
winds should also be on a decreasing trend from this evening into
Thursday morning over the majority of the County Warning Area.

For Thursday, slightly warmer temperatures should be realized over
eastern locations, while western sections should observe maximum
temperatures similar to today's values.

The dry conditions of Thursday morning should give way to increased
pops by later in the day, especially over far western, southern and
eastern locations. In addition, some stronger storms will be
possible over far southeastern locations due to projected favorable
cape, Li and bulk shear values. As always, weather forecast office Pueblo will monitor
for this potential closely.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Thursday night-Friday night...latest models in agreement of a long
wave trough across the intermountain and Great Basin on Thursday
lifting out across the northern rockies Thursday night and Friday,
leading to moderate to strong southwest flow aloft in place across
the region Thursday night, which becomes more westerly and slowly
decreases Friday afternoon and evening, as the system translates
east. A modest increase in mid level moisture and lift ahead of the
system will keep isolated to scattered showers, and a few possible
thunderstorms, in place across the area Thursday night into early
Friday morning, with the best coverage along and west of the
contdvd. Snow levels look to remain high (aoa 11,000 ft) though can
not rule out some light snow accumulations across the higher peaks
along The Divide. Breezy southwest winds expected to mix down across
the lower elevations through the day on Friday helping to mix out
low level moisture and creating a dryline across the far southeast
plains Friday afternoon. Moisture and convergence along this
boundary, along with ample shear, could help develop late afternoon
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, producing
large hail and damaging winds. At this time, Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook has
Kiowa, bent, Prowers and Baca counties in a marginal risk, with this
risk possibly sliding a tad west or east, depending on where said
boundary sets up. West of said boundary, will likely see high fire
danger and probable red flag conditions, especially across portions
of the I-25 corridor. However, red flag conditions do not look to be
widespread enough or of a long enough duration (generally less than
3 hours) to issue a Fire Weather Watch at this time. Temperatures on
Friday will be at to well above seasonal, warmest across the eastern
plains with highs in the 80s and 90s expected.

Saturday-Sunday...temperatures cool slightly across the area on
Saturday, with secondary energy digging across The Rockies late in
the afternoon sending another weak front across the plains. Models
continue to indicate possible showers and storms along and behind
this boundary late Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly north of
the Highway 50 corridor. Transitory ridging builds across the region
on Sunday, with dry and seasonal weather in the offing.

Monday-Wednesday...another strong eastern Pacific system digs into
the Great Basin on Monday, though latest models differ on location
and strength of the system into the middle of next week. Current GFS
remains the outlier as it digs the system across the Great Basin and
into the southern rockies with a closed low across northeastern New
Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Blended model solution leans more toward
the ECMWF, which has support from GFS ensemble means, which digs the
system into the desert SW through Wednesday with generally weak
northwest flow aloft across the region. With that said, blended
solution keeps isolated to scattered pops across the contdvd with
at to above seasonal temperatures areawide.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kals...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will
increase Thursday afternoon with southerly gusts to near 25 kts
possible. A few showers are possible during the evening with
increasing mid and high level clouds.

Kcos and kpub...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds
out of the south will increase during the afternoon with gusts to
near 25 kts possible at kcos. Increasing mid and high level clouds
are expected by the evening. Mozley


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


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