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000 
FXUS65 KPUB 180509
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Southern Colorado currently graced by above seasonal mid-September 
temperatures as reflected by several 90+F afternoon temperature 
readings over the southeastern Colorado plains, winds gusting around 
40 mph at times over portions of Chaffee, Mineral, EL Paso and 
Huerfano counties in combination with isolated showers and 
thunderstorms, favoring western locations.  Localized, elevated fire 
weather conditions also noted over select locations this afternoon.  

Main short-term meteorological issues includes the pop potential 
into this evening over the mountains and the far southeastern 
plains, localized fire weather concerns at times, winds and 
temperatures.  

Incoming real-time data, GOES satellite imagery, radar data, PV 
analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings indicate 
that isolated to scattered showers will be possible into this 
evening over western and far southeastern locations of the CWA into 
this evening and have reflected this potential in recent grid and 
zone forecasts. 

Then drier conditions are expected from later this evening into the 
majority of Wednesday, with only low-grade pops possible by later 
Wednesday over western sections of the CWA. 

Finally...above seasonal mid-September minimum and maximum 
temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of southern 
Colorado during the next 24 hours. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Wednesday night-Friday night...A long wave trough, digging across 
the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon, is progged to continue 
into the Great Basin by Wednesday night and then lifts out across 
the Northern Rockies Thursday and Friday. Latest models, however, 
are indicating slight timing differences with the system, with the 
NAM and the GFS about 12 hours faster with system as it lifts out 
across the Rockies Thursday night and Friday. This leads to a 
slightly further west dryline across the Plains and better chances 
of showers and storms across the ContDvd on Thursday, as compared 
with the slower ECMWF solution. At any rate, blended model solution 
leans towards the faster solution, with lee troughing on the Plains 
bringing brisk southerly winds and dew pts in mid 40s to mid 50s 
across the Plains Thursday afternoon, along with uvv ahead of the 
passing trough, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms over 
the higher terrain and possible strong storms along the dryline 
across the far southeast Plains. Lift associated with the passing 
wave will keep scattered showers along and west of the ContDvd 
Thursday night and into Friday morning, with some light snow 
accumulations possible at highest elevations across the Central 
Mountains. Breezy southwest winds expected to mix down across the 
lower elevations through the day on Friday helping to mix out low 
level moisture, leading to high fire danger and possible red flag 
conditions across much of the southeast Plains Friday afternoon. 
Temperatures through the period will remain well above seasonal 
levels, with highs in the 80s and 90s expected across the Plains. 

Saturday-Sunday...Latest models indicating secondary energy digging 
across the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening, sending a 
weak cold front, with possible showers and storms along and behind 
this front, across the eastern Plains Saturday night. Transitory 
ridging builds across the region on Sunday, with dry and seasonal 
weather in the offing. 

Monday-Tuesday...Another strong eastern Pacific system digs into the 
Great Basin on Monday, though latest models differ on location and 
strength of the system into the middle of next week. With that said, 
stayed with current blended solution into early next week, which 
indicates isolated to scattered pops across the ContDvd with near 
seasonal temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours. A
few mid level clouds are possible Wednesday afternoon across the
state. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase for the
afternoon with occasional gusts to near 25 kts possible. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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