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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1110 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Currently, GOES water vapor imagery shows a broad trough moving east
across the central Great Plains and into the upper Midwest, while
northwest flow aloft strengthens over Colorado as a fairly potent NW-
se oriented jet drifts east. Snow showers are ongoing over the
central mountains and Leadville area within the left jet exit
region, while the rest of the forecast area is dry. Winds are
gusting to around 30 mph across the lower elevations, and stronger
over the mountains and mountain passes. Gusty winds have combined
with low relative humidity to cause areas of near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions. Temperatures are in the 50s to low 60s across the plains
and Colorado Springs, and 30s to 40s in the high valleys.

Tonight, snow showers will gradually come to an end across the
central mountains and in Leadville, and the rest of the forecast
area will remain dry. Winds will become light across the lower
elevations after sunset. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s
across the plains and Colorado Springs, and teens to 20s in the high
valleys.

Tomorrow, northwest flow will persist aloft, but will weaken as the
main jet axis shifts east. A lack of disturbances along with
significant height rises will yield dry weather across all of the
forecast area through the day. These trends will also result in
warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the
plains, low 60s in Colorado Springs, and 50s in the high valleys.
Winds will be weaker, and surface humidities slightly higher, so
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Generally dry west to northwest flow aloft will be over the area Tue night, with just some light snow showers over portions of the central Colorado mtns.

On Wed an upper trof drops south over the northern U.S. Rockies,
sending a front thru eastern co, although there are some timing
differences between the models, and the poor MOS guidance agreement
on high temps values, reflect these differences. By late in the
afternoon some precip will probably develop over the Pikes Peak
region and will increase over the sawatch and mosquito mtns.

The GFS and NAM show the upper trof moving south over Colorado Wed night
and thru midday Thu, before exiting the area to the south and east.
The ec continues to be the outlier, showing the upper trof being
farther west and slower. The NAM and GFS solutions northeast
upslope flow up through around 700 mb developing Wed night, with
high chances for precip over the eastern and central mtns and along
the I-25 corridor, with at least scattered precip chances over the
far southeast plains, and lesser chances over the San Luis valley
and southwest mtns. However, if the farther west scenario the ec
has is true, then those areas will see increased precip chances as
well. This system will be bringing colder air to the area with snow
levels dropping Wed night, most locations will see cold enough temps
for snow, although the lower elevations of the southeast plains may
see a mix of rain and snow by late night. If the upper trof exits
the area in the afternoon on Thu as the NAM and GFS depict, then
most precip should come to an end thru the afternoon with the far
southern areas hanging on to the potential for some light precip in
the afternoon. Temps on Thu will be well below average with highs
only in the upper 30s and 40s over eastern areas, and in the lower
to mid 40s in the high valleys. At this time it looks like the
eastern mtns could see up to 7 inches of snow accumulations, with
some of the southern I-25 corridor, south of Pueblo possibly seeing
3-5 inches of snow and the northern half of El Paso County could see
3-6 inches. Other areas could see maybe 1-3 inches. With there
still being some uncertainties with regard to the track of the
system, the snowfall amounts are also a bit uncertain.

Dry and warming weather is expected for Fri and Sat. A new upper
trof is forecast to drop south into The Rockies on sun and Mon, but
the forecast models do not agree on the track of this system and
forecast confidence for sun and Mon is rather low at this time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1109 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

VFR all taf sites with light winds. Warm air advection aloft will
promote shallower boundary layers during the daytime Tuesday,
which will hamper the vertical mixing of stronger winds aloft to
the surface.
--Pgw--

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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