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fxus61 kpbz 211903 
afdpbz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
303 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Synopsis...
after a dry and warm Sunday, showers are likely with a Monday cold
front.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
isolated convective activity will cease this evening as weak
shortwave support and instability fade. The limiting factor to
updraft strength this afternoon is very warm mid levels.

No changes were needed to a warm temperature forecast about 15
degrees above the averages given increasing surface dewpoints and
overall column warmth.

&&

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
the upper ridge will finally start to erode later on Sunday as per
encroachment of midwestern low pressure. Meanwhile, increasing mid
level warmth should further inhibit any convection and drive highs
about 15 degrees above the calculated-normals.

The trough and its associated cold front are still slated to cross
the upper Ohio on Monday. Likely pops are still appropriate along
more scattered coverage is indicated as better forcing for ascent
develops north of the region with progress of the low center.

Severe weather is not anticipated given a progged lack of instability and
any flood issues are unlikely given the same as well as with antecedent
dry weather and system progression. Temperature will moderate back
towards seasonable levels behind the front.

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Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
dry weather is figured for Tuesday and Wednesday as flat ridging
crosses the area. Temperatures will start out seasonable on
Tuesday, before increasing a bit Wednesday as southwest flow
returns. The next trough and associated front should then approach
and cross on Thursday, with the next chance of showers.

Friday still appears dry at this distance, although the boundary may
stall just south of the region.

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Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
outside of isolated shower incidents early this evening, a building
ridge will support VFR for the taf period.

Outlook...
restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.

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Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.

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