Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 141758 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1258 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
dry weather is expected through early next week amid high pressure.
Temperature will warm gradually each day, but the below-normal trend
will carry through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
mid-level clouds continue this morning, with breaks in cloud cover
already appearing as mid-level moisture decreases. The partial
clearing trend should continue through this afternoon with decreasing
moisture. Although main upper support for precip remains to our
north, latest regional radar does continue to show light returns over
the area. However, with dry air from 900-700mb as evidenced in the
12z pit sounding, this is not expected to reach the ground.
With quiet weather today, few changes were needed in the near-term
update. Did refresh temperature and sky cover with a blend of high-
res guidance, which resulted in only minor changes. Afternoon
temperatures should be warmer than yesterday, though readings are
still expected to be 10-15 degrees below average.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
sfc high pressure ridging is expected to build under the approaching
upper trough tonight and Friday, resulting in dry weather. A
weakening cold front is progged to track southeast across the eastern Great
Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region Friday night, with an increase in clouds
expected. Moisture and upper support is lacking with this front, so
no precip is expected.
High pressure should maintain the dry weather through Saturday night
as it moves east across the region. Temperatures are expected to
remain 10 to 15 degrees below average.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
ridging ahead of an approaching central Continental U.S. Trough should maintain
dry weather through early next week. The trough is progged to reach
the eastern Continental U.S. By mid week. Most of the precip chances are
expected to remain focused with a sfc low tracking along the East
Coast, so maintained only non mentionable slight chance pops in the
A gradual warming trend is expected through the period, with
temperatures returning to near average levels by mid week.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high confidence forecast of VFR weather /100-250 cigs/ through late
tonight. Sswly wind gusts of 15-20kt are possible this afternoon,
but the impact should be low. Any gusts will subside after dusk.
MVFR cigs might creep into fkl on Fri morning as wind veers to
wly/wnwly and minimal moisture in a pre-frontal trough becomes
trapped beneath a strong inversion. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
no widespread IFR weather is forecast.