Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 181333
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
933 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
a strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and
above-normal temperatures into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
no changes needed to the forecast at this time. High pressure at the
surface and aloft, along with a very dry column, will lead to a sunny
forecast. Elected to bump up high temperatures a few degrees across
the board given the abundant sunshine and dry ground. Much of the
region from pit and on southwest should reach or exceed 80 degrees.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
not much change to the thinking for this period. The amplifying upper
ridge will continue to slowly trudge eastward, with the axis creeping
into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night. A dry and well-capped
column justifies the continued dry forecast. Temperatures will
continue to slowly creep further above normal with time as mid-level
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
a trough over the western Continental U.S. Will finally start to make some
eastward progress Friday and into the weekend. This will push the
ridge axis through and east of our region by Saturday. Deepening
southwest flow will finally start to funnel a little more moisture
into our region. Continued the trend of going with higher Max
temperatures than those suggested by superblend through Saturday, by
which time many readings in the lower and mid 80s can be expected.
If anything, the models are a bit slower in bringing the next cold
front eastward, as would be expected when the attempt is made to
dislodge such a strong ridge. The best chance for our next rainfall
still appears to be Sunday night and Monday as the front crosses. A
drier and slightly cooler Tuesday would then follow.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period with high
pressure and dry air across the region.
no widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.